Wednesday, August 1, 2012

You Control the One Percent

No, not the one percent with all that wealth. Apparently no one controls them.

I'm talking about the one percent that will decide this election. This one percent is ENTIRELY within your control.

Here's how you get your power. First, it's going to be a very, very close election, according to all the calculations. But there is one calculation that shows how really close it will be. That calculation is the one utilized to adjust current polls (which are based on registered voters) to results for "likely voters".

As of now, most pollsters are still polling registered voters. When they switch to just polling likely voters, Obama will probably take a hit in the numbers. So say the experts. That's because Democrats don't turn out to vote with as much reliability as do GOP voters. Sad, but true  -  and it has always been that way. So we already know that.

Now, however, master statistical analyst Nate Silver of the New York Times, who has the most sophisticated analysis program of all, has announced that the figure he normally uses to adjust current polling of registered voters does not use a large enough reduction to represent likely Democratic turnout, given the other data he has. This is a long-winded way of saying that he sees signs the Democratic stay-at-homers will be nearly TWICE as numerous as usual. The difference is one per cent versus a two percent adjustment.

Oh, folks, this is really bad news! It's so obviously bad news that I need not carry on about it.

But this is also what delivers this election into YOUR hands!


Make your plans now to be in Pennsylvania or Ohio or Virginia for the Obama get-out-the vote effort. That's where this election will be decided, by all present and historical indications. Without two of those three states, Obama will LOSE. Most important of the three is OHIO because, without Ohio, Romney CANNOT win.

No excuses. Just get yourself to one of those three states. Planes, trains and automobiles. Or buses. Even hitchhiking. Get some folks to go with you. Maybe the local campaign can get you a place to bunk in. JUST DO IT!

And if you can't go  -  because you're in prison in Algiers or you're having a baby that week  -  SEND MONEY! The Obama campaign is overspending to hit Romney hard now with ads to show people how inadequate the man is. But the Obama campaign also needs money for more organizing at the grassroots level. Even grassroots need some feeding.

Can we get that critical one percent to show up and vote for the man? Oh, baby, yes we can!

But will we? Let me put it like this:  We damn well better! Or we can kiss tomorrow goodbye. For us, for our kids, for our grandkids.

And that other one percent who now have all the money and much of the power? On election night they will drink a champaign toast to those of us who let them win this election. And that toast will be our curse to bear for a long, long time to come.

P.S. Hey, Mitt! Where's those tax returns?



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