In spite of Hurricane Isaac, the GOP convention in Florida may produce a bounce for Romney/Ryan in the national polls for a short while after the convention. Forget it!
The bounce that counts is the one that just happened in Florida for Obama. In spite of the GOP doing Florida the dubious honor of holding its convention there, Florida has just moved into Obama's camp. The excellent poll-analysis site, electoralvote.com, is now showing Obama at 50% in Florida to Romney's 46%. Two significant things: First, this is the first time, as I recall, that Obama has had this sort of lead in Florida. Second, he's hit 50%! One tiny step from a majority!
The net result is that electoralvote.com now forecasts Obama winning 326 votes in the Electoral College!
That's a big bingo, baby! All he needs is 270.
And Nate Silver, the NY Times premier polls analyst, has just boosted Obama's likely electoral total to 299!
Nate Silver cautions us to disregard a new poll showing Obama trailing in Michigan, and he explains how that poll is basically flawed. Indeed, he maintains that Michigan is not even a swing state. It's Obama-land! And well it should be after the successful auto bailout that Obama courageously undertook while Romney said "Throw Detroit to the dogs!" (The connection is that Romney believes in putting dogs on top of cars, a sort of replacement for old-time hood ornaments.)
But remember that it's not over until it's over. Polls are just polls. In the end, it's the votes that count, and the GOP is determined to suppress the Obama vote in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Not only have the GOP state governments taken such steps but you can bet your bottom that the GOP will be pulling every shenanigan they can think of on election day to steal this election by harassing Democratic voters, having too few polling places in Democratic areas, using faulty machines, "losing" boxes of ballots, etc., etc. etc.
There is one trick, however, that the GOP doesn't have. It's the one the Democrats hold, and it's called "Stay at home on election day." We tend to do that, and this year the polls show voter turnout among Democrats is likely to be lower than what we need. It's a strange trick because we play it on ourselves. Thus it's our fault if we lose.
"I'm sure as hell going to vote!", you say. Well, good. But that's not enough. Do no more than that and you're wasting your vote because we are going to lose if we all don't help get our Democratic brethern and sistern to the polls. ("Sistern" is a lame joke, I know.)
So here's your nagging grandma pushing on you yet again. I won't quit nagging you about helping Obama. Never. Nagging's in my job specs as a grandma.
Which reminds me of a great story about the Goldwater campaign of 1964 and the fabled Democratic trickster Dick Tuck. (Grandma specs also include telling old stories.) Tuck rounded up a bunch of elderly ladies and planted them around town with their canes. As people walked by, the old ladies jabbed them with their canes and shouted in their crackly voices, "Vote for Goldwater!"
Now that's the kind of voter suppression I can live with!
Here's hoping Hurricane Isaac spares you and your loved ones. And all our people. Just remember that it's all the Republicans' fault.
More seriously, remember that it was seven years ago right now that George W and the "less government" philosophy left people to the harsh outcome of Katrina. No rescue, no water, no food, no functioning bathrooms for day after day after day after day after day after day. And every day we all suffered along with them.
"Nice job, Brownie!"
Hey, Romney, where's those tax returns! And don't tell us that they blew away in Isaac!