Friday, October 28, 2016

Trump Never Meant to Win?

My last post suggested that Donald Trump never really meant to win the presidency.Trump Quits the Race!

A thoughtful reader in Oregon raises some good points about my idea:

 "So Dorothy, I'm curious. Is this your opinion only? Is it based on any research? If so what? Any psychologists who are saying this? Or? It's been a thought I've had but also realize that the man seems to have several mental illnesses (this is me the non-psychologist speaking). Obviously narcissism. He also seems to have not progressed beyond about age three. Everything is mine! No conscience. Grabs others "toys". Can't remember the name for that one. There's another one that has to do with anger and vindictiveness.  
In any case, he obviously likes power, obviously believes he is the best, can do no wrong. I can see that the personality type would be one that would think being President of the US would make him all powerful and that he wouldn't believe that he wasn't qualified or capable since his mind doesn't work that way. On the other hand, he wouldn't take losing well at all. He wouldn't believe in it. Somehow I don't buy that the whole thing was a strategy for turning Fox into his own station or ruining the Republican Party or getting (under other circumstances probably unelectable) Hillary elected or quitting cause it wasn't what he wanted in the first place. It was all a con game. He is definitely about con games but it doesn't make sense to me that this was one he never intended to win. So..o. Your thoughts?"

Here's my reply:
 I think in the beginning he was astounded that he was catching on so well. He got drunk on the adulation. Remember he said, "I'll be entirely self-funded." Well, he never has put any sizable amount of his money into the campaign. With "operators" like Trump you always watch the money. If they don't put their money where their mouth is, get up and leave. 

I totally agree with you that he had no elaborate schemes and that he is the spoiled child you describe. For years and years he has talked about running for president because he truly believes he is the smartest guy on the block and can "fix" all the problems he perceives. I don't think he considered or understood what being president actually requires. He couldn't even grasp what running a gambling casino requires. (Hillary was correct in saying in mock dismay,"How can anyone lose money running a gambling casino?", i.e. the house takes a cut on every bet,  plus most of the games are rigged.)

And he never has cared that he can't follow through and win a real victory. He made money (what money he ever made) by loading up his properties with debt, so that those enterprises couldn't bring in enough to service the debt. Then he declares bankruptcy so he can walk away free and clear. How much did he take with him of the borrowed capital? If he didn't pay his suppliers or his workers, where did the bank's loan go to? Into Trump's pockets.

He's a con artist and a scam artist. His idea of a real battle is to file lawsuits, settle them, but never go all the way to judgment. Nor are the settlements ever made public. He may have lost all these battles. We don't know. He tells us he's a winner, but where's the record of that? 

As for any expertise I may have, I just watch what people do. I've been in politics for 60 years and come from the (in)famous Mayor Richard Daley family—father and son—that ran Chicago for 43 years. We were of the cleaner branch of the Daleys but we knew what goes down. When I worked for Jerry Brown the first time he was governor of California, my principle job was sniffing out the scams being attempted in the huge pocketbook of California's parks program, one of the most dollar-rich government land deals in the world. I can smell a scam and a con artist.

Trump knew what to run on because, for all his wealth, he is a loser like those poor souls who follow him. And a racist and anti-femininst. I love those people, wrong as they are, because they are my neighbors in rural PA. Michael Moore loves them too. Trump has taken advantage of them. He's picked their pockets selling them those hats, etc. Trump didn't raise money to run; he ran to get money.
Dorothy Gray Gurney

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Monday, October 24, 2016

Trump Quits the Race!

Actually Donald Trump quit the presidential contest a long time ago. In fact, he never was in it at all.

Take note that he didn't put his money where his mouth is. He didn't self-finance his campaign, and his campaign is grossly underfunded. If a guy doesn't put his money where his mouth is, he's a con.  He didn't want to be president. He wanted to be a celebrity again.

Remember that he's a TV celebrity who lost his spot as man-in-control of the Miss Universe pageant where he could, not so incidentally, go in the dressing rooms and look at the contestants as they changed their clothes. Bad enough to be knocked out of being a peeping tom, but to have also lost the limelight...... Well, it was just too much.

He's missed being Mr. Big. He missed the roar of the grease paint and the smell of the crowd. And he found a way to get back to center stage.

It's one of the greatest cons of all time. Everybody fell for it.  Especially the uneducated, mostly unemployed, fearful and fading white men who just had to believe that something would turn back the roiling history that was shoving them into oblivion.

Like Trump they had lost their center stage. White males—any white males—used to run the show. They were the superior race and the superior sex. Like Trump they were stars in their own worlds and the bosses of the women in their lives . They were powerful and mighty. Now they are the only demographic group in the world that has a rising death rate, chiefly from addiction, alcohol, and suicide. Ten million of them are missing from the American labor force, sidelined by disabilities or addictions.Their jobs are gone, chiefly manual labor. Minority people of color will soon be the majority, and women are increasingly empowered and uppidity.

Trump spoke for the fading men and to them. He never talked about the self-inflicted pathos of their lives—the suicides, the addictions, their lack of education or anything else that may be their own doing. Instead he identified others for them to blame and hate. The list is long: immigrants, Latinos, Muslims, Japanese, Chinese, Democrats, liberated women (that's who the denunciation of "politically correct" is really aimed at), women who don't tolerate his mauling them, Wall Street, Washington,  Republican office-holders, the elite, the educated, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, the media, and anybody who doesn't bow down or roll over when King Donald saunters by.

As King Donald struts through the campaign, his followers take every slight or criticism against him as an attack on themselves. He is them!

That's all Trump ever cared about: bring a hero and celebrity to millions of people. He didn't care a rat's ass about being a president.

And that explains why he has repeatedly ruined his own chances, blotting out any issue he spoke of by shifting into outrageousness.The wisps of coherence were just to keep his voters thinking he was an actual candidate, to give them the cover of not apparently being complete nincompoops.

I think he'll back off of leading an uprising when he loses. Not out of any patriotic sense of responsibility toward the country's welfare, but because he's too lazy to do it and he's probably afraid he might win.

He doesn't want to govern. He just wants his own pipeline to the people and the sound of their roars of approval. The rumble on the street is that he will be starting his own news network.

But ask yourself: what businesses would advertise on his network?  Bedsheet and scissor companies?

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Can You Believe It? Trump's Chances At 9%!

Never before has there been something like this with a major party presidential candidate. Let's hope the outcome is a devastating repudiation of Trump and all the vile things he has said and done.
What more is there to say in the face of such stunning numbers? Well, actually the thing to say is:   "Get out and vote!"  It isn't over until it's over. Voter complacency is the enemy of a candidate in the lead.So remember our motto: Vote early and often!

2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President? - The New York .

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Four Pieces of Very Good Campaign News

GOOD NEWS #1: Here in all-important Pennsylvania two men just came door-to-door on my street on behalf of Hillary Clinton. The older of the two proudly announced that he has been a registered Republican for 25 years but "not any more, not now, not with what Trump is doing and saying."

Nothing is as powerful as door-to-door "canvassing", as it's sometimes called, or "the ground game" in recent parlance. As I've explained over and over in this column through the last five years, it beats ads, it beats robocalls, it beats direct mail. It's how I ran winning campaigns on a shoestring for 20 years........ People going door-to-door. Nothing like it! It's also morally correct, non-fattening, and wonderful for democracy and community. But enough of the commercial message.

GOOD NEWS #2:  This is the second time someone has come to my door on behalf of Clinton. A couple of weeks ago, a man and woman came knocking. This is unheard of! Two visits by a campaign! This is great! Makes this old campaigner's heart really sing. Clinton reputedly has a good ground game going. Judging by what's happening in my neightborhood, I'd say she has a great ground game going and that Trump is toast! 

GOOD NEWS #3:  What follows is a column put up about an hour ago by Nate Siver on his well-regarded analytical site "538". It is so good in its thinking, facts, and writing that I'm just going to give you the link and let you enjoy the whole thing. You're going to like this, folks. It's not only good news; it's instructional about politics. Hats off to Nate Silver!
    Election Update: Where The Race Stands With Three Weeks To Go  

GOOD NEWS #4: The above news is all so good this evening that the drinks are on me!  And — remember! — vote early and often!

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Three Things Not To Worry About

People keep asking me, "How can those GOP women still support Trump?" Even the normally arithmetic-oriented "538" site today raises what I consider a silly issue: For Many GOP Women, Party Loyalty Trumps Personal Affront

Why should anybody care about this bunch of GOP women? As far as the election goes, these women literally don't matter because there are so few of them.

It's just a question of arithmetic, not mysterious political shadows.

In exploring the leanings of GOP women, the "538" article first announces that some 74% of all GOP still support Trump. 74%! Wow! That sounds like an awful lot of voters. But keep in mind that a large percentage of a modest number is still a smallish number. At last tabulation, only 23% of the electorate were registered as GOP. That's the Republicans lowest number ever.

When your basic number is only 23% and you take 74% of it, you get only 17%. This means that the  entire GOP contingent supporting Trump accounts for only about 17% of the electorate. Thus 74% may sound big but is a relatively small number when you look at the steps in reaching it.

It shrinks even further when you look at just GOP women, which this alarmist article purports to do. According to the article 73% of GOP women still support Trump. That's a really small number of actual voters since slightly less than half of the GOP's 23% of the electorate are women. Half of 23% is only 11.5%. Of these GOP women, only 73% still support Trump. That's only 8.4% of the electorate!

Be real! Since Trump is polling about 40% nationally  (RCP Poll Average), he's obviously getting support from somewhere. Why is the "538" writer surprised that one in five of Trump's supporters is a female Republican? What's surprising is that so few Republican women are supporting him. The paucity of their support has been hidden by the strong anti-Hillary numbers among all registered males. Hillary is trailing Trump among men by 11%. But she's leading him among all women by 18 points. Hillary Clinton gaining support among key set of voters - CBS .... Thus she is ahead of him by about 6 point nationally.

Numbers matter! In the end we count the votes. In the end politics is all about numbers! Correct use of the numbers!

Lecture over!  Here's the other two things not to worry about. Don't even bother to read these!  Both are from "538". Gosh, they'd better take up card playing over at 538 to kill time when they have nothing worth writing about.

Election Update: Watch New Hampshire For Signs Of A Trump Comeback   Wha...?

How Evan McMullin Could Win Utah And The Presidency   Really, dear? (Yawn)
P.S. My manager when I was writing comedy scripts put all this percentages thing very well in one sentence. I complained, "Why should you get 15% when other managers get 10%?" His answer: "You haven't sold anything yet, and 15% of nothing is still nothing." He never did get anything because my writing partner commited suicide, and I left show biz and began a career in politics. (Compared to Hollywood, politics is just good, clean fun.) You can still see one of my dear friend's shows on Lucy reruns, i.e. the one where she gets her hand stuck in the rare Chinese vase. Let me emphasize: Lucy was an exemplary human being, very good and kind to all who worked with or for her. I want to make clear that my friend's suicide had nothing to do with his working for her.

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Three GOP Men Walk Into a Bar.....

Three GOP Men Walk Into a Bar And Watch The Debate.....

What can I say beyond that? This is a tough time for the GOP. It's going to take more than a couple of drinks to suffer through what they are now suffering.

These headlines below pretty much tell the story as of today. Normally things can change quickly in politics, but in spite of that maxim, in my long memory of politics no candidate has ever recovered from what Donald Trump has said and what he has done and what he is.

The polls and GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan have already virtually pronounced Trump a loser.  And— oh!— how Trump hates any "loser"!  He will of course blame Paul Ryan and the GOP "establishment".  Now it only remains to be seen how far Trump's damage runs through the entire GOP.

So here's a look at the current prognosis via headlines. You sure don't have to actually read the articles to get the picture:

The House May Be in Play   from RealClearPolitics;

 Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump    from Nate Silver's "538" site 10-11-16;

 Is This What It Looks Like When A Party Falls Apart?   also from Silver;

As Party Splits Over Trump, Republican States May Tilt from the New York Times;

Re absentee GOP voting dropping sharply in NC: ;

 The 2016 Race Google Searches for Voter Registration Have Surged in Hispanic Areas      NY Times;

From Al Hunt at Bloomberg News: Clinton's Turnout Machine Could Prove Decisive.

Regarding that last item, remember that Trump thumbed his nose at organizing a ground game (he's lazy and also thinks he can do anything on his own). He said he would rely on the Republican National Committee for door-to-door work on his behalf. Hmmmmm. Where does that leave him now? I'd say I'd check it out, but that's not actually possible. The GOP will say it's doing the job because it has to say that.

We shall have to wait and see! What a year!

Next time:  "What About the Senate?"  (Unless the eight-legged Trump drops yet another shoe!)

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Trump Crashing? Destruction of the GOP? And How About Those Cubs?

I can't keep up with it! The headlines are coming too fast!.........Bing, bang, bong!......


   Hillary Clinton has an 87% chance of winning the presidency 

      Election Update: Polls Show Potential Fallout From Trump Tape  

         ‘Tin-Pot Dictators’ Seen in Threats to Jail Clinton

              G.O.P. Fracture Over Trump Grows Worse

                 Hard-Liners Furious as Ryan Appears to Abandon Nominee

                      Meltdown: Republican Leaders at Odds With Their Voters

On and on and on...

Did you get that item above that Trump has fallen to a 13% chance of winning?  That's down 5% in a couple of days. It's an historic sub-cellar position!

Plus the big piece of news last night from NBC. The network's latest polling shows Clinton leading nationally by double digits. Yes, my friends, double digits!  NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl

Folks, that just doesn't happen in a presidential race in this day and age.

Also Clinton is edging ahead of Trump in Florida and just a tad in Ohio. Losing those two states is more than enough to lock him out of the electoral college. because Clinton is approaching a double digit lead in Pennsylvania. PA, FL, and OH spell the White House. She's also pulling further ahead in Virginia and now even has a small lead in North Carolina. Get this! She's only 1% behind Trump in Arizona. Yes, ARIZONA! 

Meantime, pivotal Senate races are veering into the Democratic column, among them New Hampshire and Pennsylvania where the Republican incumbents were seemingly secure a week or two ago. Added to Illinois and other states the Democrats are about to pick up, these two would give the Democrats a majority in the Senate and thereby clinch the Democrats' chance to fill the swing seat in the Supreme Court for a majority they haven't had for decades.

And the House of Representatives? It was over the moon to dream the Democrats could win back control of the House. But that may be what is threatening Speaker Paul Ryan so clearly that he is willing to dump the party's presidential nominee in a desperate attempt to save House seats. He must know from private polling that the GOP is in real danger of losing its majority because of the curse of Trump being on the ticket. Prior to the Trump tape, the Cook Political Report named 20 seats as up for grabs.  The Cook Political Report - House Race Ratings  Apparently it now it puts 34 GOP House seats within  reach of Democrats. The Democrats need 29 to regain control.  Where Republicans in Tight Races Stand on Trump

Can all this be true? It is a terrible thing for a superstitious Irish/Jewish person to dare to say it might really be happening. It is to dare the fates to say such things out loud. But, hey! We're only young once. Well, actually we're only 80 once. I have so dreamed and prayed for us to keep the presidency AND win back the Senate AND—miracle of miracles—win back the House. AND get the Supreme Court majority after having been in the minority for 40 long, long years!

I really want to see all this happen while I still have my feet in this crazy country and before I go drifting off into some other realm where they probably don't have politics. Is that too much to ask?

And out of the corner of my eye, there's the Cubs. We Cubby fans have waited 108 years. That's a long time in the desert.

Naw. It's too much to also want the Cubs to you-know-what. One can't want everything, right?

Aw, what the hell. Bring it all on! This kid is ready to be really thankful this Thanksgiving! And if it all doesn't happen, you'll know whom to blame. This 80-year-old woman who felt compelled to dream out loud and thus jinxed everything.