Friday, October 12, 2012

Post Mighty Biden, Where Do We Stand Now?

Joe Biden, you did great!  You took Ryan to the woodshed and made everyone  -  except the GOP  -   feel just a whole lot better.

That said, does Joe's performance make a difference in the race?  Has he "saved" Obama's chances of winning?  (Please recall that I never bought into the hysteria that followed the Obama-Romney debate.)

The happy truth is that we were doing okay before the veep debate.  For all the media outcry about the President's debate performance, it made little difference in the voters' minds.  In three key swing states (Ohio, Florida and Virginia), over 90% of voters say that they made up their minds before the debate and are staying with their choice even though two-thirds thought Obama lost the debate.

And the undecideds?  Less than half of them nationally watched the debate, over a third of those who watched couldn't tell who won and, of the rest, only half as many thought Romney won as did the decided voters.

And the undecideds are few in number.  They are now less than 3% of the voting public.  In fact, they are so disengaged, that many of them won't be voting.  All this is according to a UCLA study that has been following them for over a year.  So much for the vaunted undecideds!

So how are we doing otherwise?  Here are some items to cheer your spirits:

1.  We still are ahead in OHIO!  As I've said over and over, Romney can't win without Ohio.  The arithmetic just doesn't work.  (Not that he and Ryan care a toot about arithmetic!)  By contrast,  if Obama wins what Kerry did in 2004, plus Ohio and Iowa (which he also leads in), all he needs is ONE more small state and he's got the electoral college.  That's it, baby!  And two major polls this week show Obama leading in Ohio by 4 points to 6 points.  As for that one more small state he would need, not to worry; he's leading in several.  So HOLD OHIO!  That's our mantra.

2.  Unemployment claims fell this week to their lowest since pre-Crash 2008!  That's fantastically good news, especially after the drop in September's unemployment to less than 8%.  And consumer confidence is up, as are housing sales and prices and housing starts.

3.  Obama collected an all-time record-breaking $181 MILLION from small contributions in September.  By contrast, the Romney campaign is still scrambling for bucks.  (My next blog is about Ann Romney scratching at my back door for a handout.)

4.  HALF A MILLION people gave to Obama in September who had NEVER donated before!  Not in 2012 or 2008.  Phenomenal!  That's another half million folks with some skin in the game who will likely now work for Obama.  So we now have almost five million potential volunteers!

5. More than one in five voters in Ohio has already voted.  And TWO-THIRDS of them voted for the Democrats!

6.  Obama has a great ground operation, with two to three times the number of Romney campaign HQs in the swing states.  And the superpacs can't help Romney with financing more of a ground game because that would clearly violate the ban on coordinating with a candidate's campaign.

7.  The Democrats have successfully beaten back the GOP efforts to disenfranchise Democratic voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.  There may be a bit of residual dust, i.e. confusion among voters as to the actual rules, but it's likely this can all be sorted out by the on-the-ground Obama operation.

There's more good news, but don't be piggy.  Just love it the way it is.  And keep contributing and working.

Don't let Joe down after his great fight last night.


So, Mitt, the kid you sent on stage last night got pummeled by the old pro?  Question, Mitt:  How come Ryan had to give you tons of tax returns before you'd accept him aboard but we're supposed to hire you for the presidency with just two measly years of disclosure?  Does that seem fair?  Ooops, I forgot that you have already said no to fairness in taxation matters.  But we STILL want those tax returns.



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