Thursday, October 25, 2012

Media Buys GOP "Surge" Malarkey

There is NO "mo" for Romney!

("Mo" being campaign-speak for momentum.)

It's just malarkey from the GOP.  Romney is NOT "surging".   The media may have bought the mo myth, but they'll get over it.  The math will win out.

And the math is clear.  Obama is still holding his lead in the swing states.  He has all along.  They are what matter.  They are all that matters.

But the media has to keep things bubbling on the stove, so when the GOP serves up some "surge" stew, the media says "Bring it on!"

And this is not just Grandma here telling you that the GOP stew has no meat in it.  Check it out with the heavyweights: Jim Fallowes in the Atlantic, Charlie Cooke, Nate Silver.  Look at their numbers and those at or votamatic.  These folks are ANALYSTS, not pollsters nor pundits.  They analyze polls and other numbers by using computer programs.  They don't just "sense"things like the pundits do.

These numbers experts have Obama winning about 290 electoral votes.  He only needs 270.  The range is about 290 (Nate Silver in the NY Times) to 332 (votamatic).  Most give Obama about a 70 percent chance of winning the election.

Can the numbers be wrong?

Sure. Numbers aren't people.  (Nor are corporations, for that matter, Mitt.)  Numbers don't vote.  And we don't know how many people will actually vote by election day.  A lot of Democrats could stay home. We have been notorious for that since I started in politics 45 years ago.   Or young people may go back to the sleep they enjoyed before 2008.

Or voter intimidation and suppression by the GOP may work. The rotten stuff is already starting in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia.  Threats of jailing for trying to vote, postcards announcing the wrong date for the election, threats of losing one's job.  Same old  s_ _ t the GOP has been pulling ever since I can remember.

Or Hurricane Sandy may hit us so badly along the East Coast early this next week that there's no electricity in several states even by election day.  No electricity, no voting machines.  We may have to postpone voting!  Argh!

Yeah, lots can happen.  But meantime, Obama just keeps going along, holding on to a poll lead in those key states, even gaining a tick or two these last couple of days.

He just keeps bounding up those stage stairs like a man who's glad to be there.  Because he is.  He's good at campaigning.  Very good.  And he likes doing it.

As for Romney  -  he's drinking his own hootch.  Unless a campaign is a thundering wipeout, as in 2008, candidates and their hard core supporters ALWAYS believe in the last weeks that the candidate is going to win!  They want to believe it and they do believe it.  It makes them happy and energized and creates an aura of OH WOW!  Nevertheless, it's an illusion, a self-delusion.

But it keeps them out of the pool halls.

Just too bad the media also got caught up in the trip.

So relax and watch the World Series.  The playoffs and series are the best baseball I've ever seen.  Especially those Giants.  They are having a good time!  They like what they are doing!  They do it very well!

Just like Obama and campaigning!


Well, Mitt,  you don't like campaigning, do you?  You have to tell yourself you're winning just so you can carry on.  You didn't want it enough, Mitt.  If you had, you would have cleaned up your financial act years ago so that you could have released your tax returns this year.  Not releasing them has really cost you, Mitt boy.  So far, it's cost you the presidency.  



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