Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Ann Romney v. What Really Matters Now in the Campaign

As I noted the other day, Ann Romney came here to mountainous, beautiful, and impoverished Central Pennsylvania to raise money.  Pathetic.  But she did appear in a local TV "interview".  If you can call a less-than one minute Q & A an interview.  Long or short, however, her appearance here does not matter.

Because this is what REALLY MATTERS:  OHIO!

You betcha!  OHIO OHIO OHIO!  No matter if Ann Romney does a Lady Godiva and rides her dressage horse naked or whatever else she does or Mitt does, Mitt Romney CANNOT WIN WITHOUT OHIO.  The polls elsewhere don't matter. The national polls don't matter.  The debates don't matter.  The advertising doesn't matter. ALL THAT MATTERS IS OHIO!  And  -  glory be!  -  Obama STILL has a 5% lead in Ohio!

Provided he wins the states Kerry won in 2004 and wins Ohio, he will then have 266 electoral college votes, just four votes short of the magic 270.   At that point all he needs is any ONE of the following swing states: Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), or Iowa (6).  He doesn't need Florida nor Virginia nor North Carolina.  But, if Obama indeed wins Ohio, poor ol' Romney has to win ALL the swing states I've listed in this paragraph.  That's a hell of a lot of states!

And it would not happen.  Common sense tells us that, if Romney loses Ohio, he certainly will lose some other swing states.  In short, he will be toast.

So, what else matters in this race?  Nothing much really.  Sure, Obama might disappoint the pundits in tonight's debate.  Or something awful might happen beyond that, like Democrats not voting.  But as long as he hangs on to Ohio.....

Nevertheless let's do a feel-good romp!  Let's roll around in the other recent good news like we used to roll around in the piles of autumn leaves when we were kids! Here goes:

Consumer confidence has gone through the roof, and retail sales zoomed in September. Unemployment comp applications were way down last week.  The stock market is as high as before the Crash of '08.  Unemployment is below 8%.  Early voting is strong, plus it favors Obama by a big margin.  Obama has between two and three times as many campaign offices as Romney and at least twice as many paid ground staff.  And he out-raised Dollar Man Mitt in September, almost all of it from small donors.

Plus, in two respectable polls yesterday, Obama is at 51% JOB APPROVAL.  As the profoundly serious pundit Rob Reiner points out, an incumbent's job approval rating always ends up being his vote total.  (You may know Rob Reiner better for "When Harry Met Sally".  Or you may not know him at all, but he's still right historically.)

And the betting parlors are still giving 2 to 1 in Obama's favor.

So if you can't trust Las Vegas bookies, Rob Reiner, and this old grandma, why the hell are you a Democrat?

Just GET OUT THAT VOTE.  It's our vote to get.  And be happy!  Can we Dems be happy for once?  YES WE CAN!


Hey, Romney!  Hiding your tax returns may make you happy.  Having all that money and all those houses may make you happy.  But you're still a miserable shell of a human being, and we still want those tax returns!


No comments:

Post a Comment