Friday, September 14, 2012

It Isn't Just the Polls

Yes, the polls look great!  So what if "experts" warn this could still just be Obama's convention bounce and that it could fade?

I respect that, but there's other factors that the analysts can't measure.

Romney got NO convention bounce.  Not during his convention nor after.  Has there ever been a zip bounce from a convention?  (Maybe Chicago in '68, but I don't recall the numbers saying so, as hideous as that Democratic convention was.)  This means that the more voters see of Romney the less they like.  Too bad more didn't see him.  But that's another factor:  the 30% drop in viewing of the GOP convention.  What's the statistical implication of that?  Analysts can't measure it because there's no history of such a thing.  And the voters who did watch saw a boring, empty man saying nothing and a once-exciting man talking to an empty chair.  They also saw a badly-run convention: lead speakers promoting themselves instead of the candidate.  If a guy can't run a convention, how can he run the country?  The ABSENCE of a bounce thus counts infinitely more than high-bounce v. low-bounce even though statisticians have no way to measure its implications.

Donors.  Obama beat Romney in campaign collections in August and not just in the dollars.  The big number is 98%, the percentage of funds that came from small donors.  Romney got only about one-third of his moola from small donors.  Small donors become volunteers.  Volunteers get the vote out.

Headquarters.  In the swing states Obama has two or even three times the number of headquarters that Romney does.  This is great news regarding a ground game.  But it also says something else.  Romney can certainly afford more headquarters, so why doesn't he have them?  The answer may be that he doesn't have the potential volunteers to make those headquarters hum.  You don't send the threshing machine into the field where there's no crop.  It would be terrible for him to have headquarters that were virtually empty of volunteers.  The tv shows would love the contrasting footage:  bustling Obama hqs v. Romney empty rooms.  (In politics, never hire a room you can't fill.)

Feeling good.  This is a metric just now showing up in the polls.  Right-track v. wrong-track has moved in a positive direction for the first time in a long time!  If we can get through the next six weeks without a financial disaster, we should be in good shape on election day.  EVEN if the next job reports are flat, as they were this month.

Follow the money.  But not the ad money.  Look at the stock market money and the betting parlors.  Both are strongly betting on Obama.  These bets count ever so much more than the money the stinking rich are betting on Romney.  The rich can afford to spend on Romney in order to preserve their privileged status; they are betting on THEIR MONEY BUYING THE ELECTION. The little guy who bets his sawbuck with the bookie is betting on OBAMA TO DO THE WINNING.  Get it?  And the stock market is betting on Obama winning and that such is good for the economy.  Romney's own "class", i.e. the investor, likes the present improvement in the economy and sees better days ahead.

Tone.  Romney and Ryan are gloom and doom.  Obama and Biden are about the home of the brave and the land of the free and the compassion of the American people.  Romney can mouth the words to patriotic songs, but Obama's  convention speech reminded Americans of the song in their own hearts.  Critics say his convention speech failed.  They are dead wrong.  He spoke to the best in us.  Romney speaks to the worst.  Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America" has become, in Romney's message, "Last One Off the Titanic".  Americans LIKE to hope.  No sinking ships for them!

Yes, it could still all go wrong. The anti-American demonstrations in the Muslim countries could get really, really bad and thus make Obama look bad.  An "October Surprise" in September.  But my son in Norway says that the Pakistanis and other Muslims he's met there tell him Obama is very popular  among their people back home.  It may turn out that Obama's trip to Cairo, his childhood in Indonesia, his African father  -  all turn out to be big assets now.  All the things the haters hate about him may keep a lid on some terrible spread of anti-American violence in the Muslim countries.

In short, what the haters hate about Obama may help insure his win.

The irony of this is so sweet that I think I'll have waffles for breakfast.


Hey, Mr. Romney!  Speaking of waffling, how come the only position you've stood firm on is NOT SHOWING YOUR TAX RETURNS?        




  1. I should have asked for permission, I now realize but I am posting your blogs on FB in a group in Lowndes County GA giving them some added energy, I hope. That county made DK's front page today. I will delete the posts if you want me to.but you are just so good.
    Kendall Hamrick

    1. Hey, Kendall, you are a sweetie! Of course you can share my blog! And thanks for asking. I'm right now posting a short blog telling all the readers they have permission. I really want to THANK YOU for sharing my stuff with your Georgia group. And it's great to hear about them. Like them, I live in a very red area and know it's not easy. But we can carry on. YES WE CAN! Tell them "hi" from me, please. Meantime, blessings!