It's happening. The polls this morning confirm it. So does the sun in the sparkling blue sky of early autumn. "It" is making a nice day into a splendid one.
The "experts" called it "bounce".
Nate Silver says it's demography.
I recently dared call it "mo".
Let's call it what it is. Obama is WINNING!
His so-called convention "bounce" actually began BEFORE the conventions as a sort of creep, as I noted yesterday. It grew during the GOP convention even before Cliff scolded a chair and Romney pretended to care about people. It got up and walked boldly out of the Democratic convention. And now, baby, it's MOVING!
And we can see it as it really is. Not a bounce but the ballgame! Obama is winning! He hasn't won yet, but he's on the way!
I won't bother you with this morning's poll numbers. They are GOOD, inside and out. Obama has not only gained overall but in those indicators that matter big-time, and he's gained with some surprising groups, like white men and the elderly. In fact, one poll has him improving with white working class men better than with women! He's also gained tremendously in job approval and in trustworthiness on pocketbook issues. Wow! Take that Mitt Romney!
And it's not just the national polls, which don't really mean much because the electoral college means everything. Obama's leading in the swing states, and that lead has grown.
But it's a nine-inning game, folks. We're now only entering the eighth. Things can still happen.
One indicator is still worrisome. According to these newest polls, fewer Democrats are "likely" to vote than Republicans. Those Democrats who are deemed likely to vote do express more "enthusiasm" than likely GOP voters, but don't be deceived. Enthusiastic or not, those GOP voters WILL vote on election day. They can't help it. A Republican with two broken legs will crawl to the polling place to vote. This is, and always has been, a fundamental truth of political campaigning: Republicans vote.
We still have to get out our vote. We still have to register more Democratic voters. We still have to finance Obama's ground forces. We still have to offset voter suppression in several swing states.
Can we do these things? YES WE CAN! YOU BET WE CAN!
Hey, Romney, a guy named bennbenji in Vermont tells us you have those tax returns in a locked box in one of your 2885 closets in one of your five or ten houses. Question: Is that also where you're keeping the secret specifics of your tax reform plan, your secret budget cuts, your secret magic for keeping the best of Obamacare without paying for it? That box of secrets is mighty damn big! Did you need the elevator in your garage just to get the box of secrets up into the house? What an odd life you live! So open that box and give us the tax returns!