Saturday, May 6, 2017

Trump and House GOP Doomed by Mutilating of Obamacare

Trump is one of three things:


Stupid politically, or

Doesn't give a damn except about a (fake) image of "winnning".

Actually he is all three, isn't he?

Paul Ryan and the House GOP didn't want to vote on the Ryan/Trumpcare bill, but Trump pushed them into it. The House members and their Speaker could see the extreme opposition to it among voters. Nationwide only 17% approve of it. And the GOP House members will have to stand for re-election next year with this dismal bill hung around their necks.

Trump doesn't care. He is all about appearances and his own needs. In his play-book, he personally needed an appearance of a victory on something. So he threw a celebration to salute his fake victory yesterday of the House voting on the Trumpcare bill. He placidly ignores the fact that a bill aproved in just either just the House or just the Senate isn't a law. It's nothing.

Either he doesn't understand that he won nothing yesterday or he doesn't care because he assumes his base wants even a hollow victory.

Since his inauguration he's been on a spectacular losing streak. His executive orders are toothless. He lost to the courts on his Muslim ban. His deportation efforts are nasty but small. And he lost to the courts on punishing sanctuary cities. He also lost the money for the wall when the Republicans decided to resurrect past practices and work with the Democrats by passing the budget bill instead of shutting down the government to finesse the wall funds. He also had to give up on scuttling Nafta, on labeling China a currency manipulator, on starting a nuclear war with North Korea. (Instead he misplaced a giant aircraft carrier.) He also failed to prove Obama had wire-tapped him and was "sick" or "bad".

Most of all, he's lost his long struggle to make everyone forget about the Trump & Co. connections to Russia and possible Trump/Russia collusion in tipping the election. In fact, right along with pictures yesterday of Trump applauding the House vote on Trumpcare, were pictures of the co-chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee with their announcement the Senate is demanding Trump's people hand over documents regarding contacts with Russian operatives.

If the White House doesn't comply, the Senate leaders said there will be subpoenas. Refusing compliance with a subpoena means a judge sends you to jail until you comply.

Against this latest piece of bad news for Trump, the House's passing the health non-care bill is no more than a squeaky toy. By contrast a giant gate has just swung open against one Donald Trump.

The biggest piece of bad news for Trump is, however, waiting for him around the bend in 2018. If he loses the House, he's toast. He already is toast for all intents and purposes, according to polls that give him only a 40% approval rate, but then he'll be soggy toast. Without the House, he can have little impact. And he will have done most of this damage to himself all by himself.

No matter what revisions the Senate now comes up with in Trumpcare, some of the GOP and independent Trump voters will remember in 2018 that their Congressman originally voted for one of the cruelest bills in American history. The House bill would  throw 24 million off their health insurance and put millions more at risk of cancellation due to pre-existing conditions. (The funds voted by the House to help pay higher premiums would last only a few months.) It will also wipe out Medicaid funding of school programs for millions of children with special needs. It will also subject older Americans (50 to 65) to paying insurance premiums five times as great as paid by younger ones.

All this cruelty so as to offset the giant tax cut Trump/Ryan plan for the rich as their next legislation. Keep in mind: Trump alone would save $31 million a year under their proposal to eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax.

But Trump may pay for this financial windfall by losing the presidency. A political ignoramus, Trump keeps forgetting some political basics. First, he lost the popular vote and only narrowly won the electoral college.  In three and a half years the rules regarding the electoral college may be changed, a scheme for such having already been adopted by half the number of states needed. (See an upcoming post on this.)

Alternatively the few thousand voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania who gave Trump his 2016 win in the electoral college may wise up by 2020. Especially if they have a family member with a pre-existing condition or are themselves over 50 or were dependent on Medicaid. These last two groups are, in fact, predominately Trump voters.

Nothing like stabbing your own voters in the back. And in the front. And pushing them over a cliff!

The man is a canny fool. He is shrewd about cheating and selling snake oil. But he's basically a fool.


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