Saturday, October 15, 2016

Three Things Not To Worry About

People keep asking me, "How can those GOP women still support Trump?" Even the normally arithmetic-oriented "538" site today raises what I consider a silly issue: For Many GOP Women, Party Loyalty Trumps Personal Affront

Why should anybody care about this bunch of GOP women? As far as the election goes, these women literally don't matter because there are so few of them.

It's just a question of arithmetic, not mysterious political shadows.

In exploring the leanings of GOP women, the "538" article first announces that some 74% of all GOP still support Trump. 74%! Wow! That sounds like an awful lot of voters. But keep in mind that a large percentage of a modest number is still a smallish number. At last tabulation, only 23% of the electorate were registered as GOP. That's the Republicans lowest number ever.

When your basic number is only 23% and you take 74% of it, you get only 17%. This means that the  entire GOP contingent supporting Trump accounts for only about 17% of the electorate. Thus 74% may sound big but is a relatively small number when you look at the steps in reaching it.

It shrinks even further when you look at just GOP women, which this alarmist article purports to do. According to the article 73% of GOP women still support Trump. That's a really small number of actual voters since slightly less than half of the GOP's 23% of the electorate are women. Half of 23% is only 11.5%. Of these GOP women, only 73% still support Trump. That's only 8.4% of the electorate!

Be real! Since Trump is polling about 40% nationally  (RCP Poll Average), he's obviously getting support from somewhere. Why is the "538" writer surprised that one in five of Trump's supporters is a female Republican? What's surprising is that so few Republican women are supporting him. The paucity of their support has been hidden by the strong anti-Hillary numbers among all registered males. Hillary is trailing Trump among men by 11%. But she's leading him among all women by 18 points. Hillary Clinton gaining support among key set of voters - CBS .... Thus she is ahead of him by about 6 point nationally.

Numbers matter! In the end we count the votes. In the end politics is all about numbers! Correct use of the numbers!

Lecture over!  Here's the other two things not to worry about. Don't even bother to read these!  Both are from "538". Gosh, they'd better take up card playing over at 538 to kill time when they have nothing worth writing about.

Election Update: Watch New Hampshire For Signs Of A Trump Comeback   Wha...?

How Evan McMullin Could Win Utah And The Presidency   Really, dear? (Yawn)
P.S. My manager when I was writing comedy scripts put all this percentages thing very well in one sentence. I complained, "Why should you get 15% when other managers get 10%?" His answer: "You haven't sold anything yet, and 15% of nothing is still nothing." He never did get anything because my writing partner commited suicide, and I left show biz and began a career in politics. (Compared to Hollywood, politics is just good, clean fun.) You can still see one of my dear friend's shows on Lucy reruns, i.e. the one where she gets her hand stuck in the rare Chinese vase. Let me emphasize: Lucy was an exemplary human being, very good and kind to all who worked with or for her. I want to make clear that my friend's suicide had nothing to do with his working for her.

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