Until today the mighty Nate Silver, the guru of predicting elections, has been vehement that Bernie Sanders has a Popsicle's chance in Hell of getting the Democratic nomination.
But now he has changed his tune! He too has noticed what I wrote about this week in my posting The 2016 Election Is Over! What he noticed has been enough to make him recalculate, recalibrate, and regurgitate. The last sentence of the first paragraph below is his white flag. Says Nate:
"We could spend some time debating the “right” way to calculate a national polling average — given that there’s no national primary, our method is designed to be deliberate rather than rush to place a lot of weight on new polls. But no matter whose numbers you look at, the inescapable conclusion is that Bernie Sanders is gaining on Clinton."
Nate, continues, "If Sanders has gained on Clinton, however, shouldn’t we also see evidence of that from the states that have voted so far? Other things held equal, we’d expect him to perform better in states voting in April than those voting in March, and better in March than in February." More Democrats Are Feeling The Bern, Probably
"We could spend some time debating the “right” way to calculate a national polling average — given that there’s no national primary, our method is designed to be deliberate rather than rush to place a lot of weight on new polls. But no matter whose numbers you look at, the inescapable conclusion is that Bernie Sanders is gaining on Clinton."
Nate, continues, "If Sanders has gained on Clinton, however, shouldn’t we also see evidence of that from the states that have voted so far? Other things held equal, we’d expect him to perform better in states voting in April than those voting in March, and better in March than in February." More Democrats Are Feeling The Bern, Probably
And that's exactly what has happened. Bernie has beaten Nate's projections at an increasing pace through March and April. The gain, therefore, is indeed real both in the polls and in the polling places.
It's called momentum, baby! And Bernie Sanders has it!
The drinks are on me!
But Nate has to buy the next round because he was a day late and a dollar short as compared with this old lady. Literally, two days late. Figuratively, a dollar short because, unlike this egomaniacal old woman who stuck her neck out days ago, he doesn't say what also needs saying: that the Democratic super delegates had better start thinking about handing the nomination to the 74-year-old white-haired Jewish democratic socialist from little 'ol Vermont.
.... who dreamed the impossible dream for all of us.
Good job, Bernie! Good job, all you millions of faithful youngsters and others who gave him your heart and your $27.
Right makes might!
It's called momentum, baby! And Bernie Sanders has it!
The drinks are on me!
But Nate has to buy the next round because he was a day late and a dollar short as compared with this old lady. Literally, two days late. Figuratively, a dollar short because, unlike this egomaniacal old woman who stuck her neck out days ago, he doesn't say what also needs saying: that the Democratic super delegates had better start thinking about handing the nomination to the 74-year-old white-haired Jewish democratic socialist from little 'ol Vermont.
.... who dreamed the impossible dream for all of us.
Good job, Bernie! Good job, all you millions of faithful youngsters and others who gave him your heart and your $27.
Right makes might!
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