Tuesday, April 19, 2016

But What About New York and Clinton Beats Sanders?

An introductory note: Hillary Clinton won New York in 2008 against Barack Obama. That did not clinch the nomination for her. It's more complicated that the talking heads would have you think. And another note: Sanders got more votes in New York than Obama did in 2008 even though the Democratic voter turnout in 2008 was greater.

Losing New York is not a big deal for Bernie Sanders. It would have been for Hillary Clinton if she had lost. That would have been a bombshell psychologically that would have blown her super delegates loose.  As it is, New York or no New York, she will not get enough pledged delegates to insure she will go into the convention with a majority.

That can't happen for her, nor Bernie Sanders. Not in this election cycle. Neither of them can possibly get the requisite majority.

The nomination will instead be decided by the super delegates. Just as it was in 2008 when "Hillary's" super delegates left her and went with an "impossible" candidate. One who was too young. Who was not experienced in governing. Who didn't know how things worked. He wasn't Jewish but he was black.

But his greatest parallel with Bernie Sanders was that he had come out of nowhere and galvanized people, especially the young, so that crowds in excess of 20,000 turned out to wait for three and four hours to hear him speak.

He was a good choice by the super delegates. He waltzed into the presidency by an enormous vote, bringing all kinds of new voters to the polls and into the Democratic party.

That can happen again. But, you ask, what is it about Sanders that indicates the super delegates may switch this year away from Hillary as they did in 2008? I have laid it out in two previous blogs, one that includes the reasoning of the famed analyst Nate Silver, who is now eating his hat for having originally dismissed Sanders as a candidate.

One blog is: The 2016 Election Is Over!

The other is:  Reluctant Nate Silver Gives More Evidence Sanders ...

So kick back and enjoy the greatest show on earth, an election year in a nation where both parties are going through an enormous transition. Or get out and work for "A Future You Can Believe In".

And remember, God takes care of dogs, drunks, and the American people.  Be of good cheer!

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