Thursday, August 11, 2016

Who Can Actually Predict the White House Winner? You Can!

One of the strange things about American election politics is that the voters know ahead of time who is going to win. In each of the election years, they have been queried, they have correctly named the winner when asked, "Who do you think will win?" They do this even when they are supporting the other candidate.

How do the voters know? I have no real idea of how they know. Some "experts" may suggest it's the same "crowd wisdom" that drives the stock market. Given the market crashes that I have seen I sure hope this isn't true. All I can guess is that they are moving among their fellow voters and pick up on the buzz and the vibe. Or maybe they assess the media coverage in some astute way unknowable to the rest of us.

Or maybe they have a nose for it. I sort of do. I swear that there usually comes a day not long before Election Day when I walk outside and can sense something in the air. It first happened in 1968 a week before the election when I could feel things moving toward Humphrey. Later data showed he was indeed moving up fast on Nixon at that time and would have caught and passed him in about another four or five days.  In 2012 it was looking tight for Obama's election and I was in a nervous twit until one day I stepped out the door and smelled victory for Obama.

So now comes a small sample of voters assessing the outcome this year. For real polling purposes, it is of course way too small a sample but it's a little something to consider. (A real polling sample nationally has to be about 1500 people and about 400 in a state.) The prognosticators here are 10 "Walmart Moms" from Ohio and 10 from Arizona, the label "Walmart Moms" being unexplained. The pollsters find the 20 are disgusted with both candidates, a slight majority of them tending now toward Trump but the large majority of them saying they expect Hillary Clinton to win.  "Walmart Moms" Say They Feel "Nauseated" by Clinton and Trump

Let's try to remember them come Election Day.  Let's see if they got it right. And in between-times let's see what subsequent voter surveys show.

Who do you think will win? After all, you readers in the USA and you Americans abroad are the ones who make it happen.

And please let me know if you understand how the voters always know who is going to win.

No comments:

Post a Comment