Monday, August 29, 2016

"Dream When You're Feeling Blue". Oh, Yeah, Baby!

Increasingly Trump is making Republicans leaders see blue. You get my meaning?

Here's a useful gift from the NY Times, an article listing most of the awful things Trump has said and showing which GOP stalwarts left him at each comment. Keep it handy for friends who are vacillating. I think you could also make this into some kind of board game for Christmas presents! It's a truly nifty piece of work from the Times: At Least 110 Republican Leaders Won’t Vote for Donald Trump. Here’s When They Reached Their Breaking Point.   

Please note that, to their credit, these GOP leaders aren't just running from Trump because of the threat he is sinking the ticket. Note for example the correlation between his outrageousness and their lap for the exits, e.g. a large number left when he refused to denounce David Duke and the KuKluxKlan. With African Americans voting overwhelmingly Democratic, these GOP left Trump because it was the morally correct thing to do, not because they were trying to protect a pro-GOP black vote. There isn't any.

As for Trump being a threat to the GOP ticket, apparently stars are beginning to dance in the eyes of Nancy Pelosi. This is also from the NY Times:
"While Democrats have sought publicly to temper expectations that they could win the House, in private meetings they are laying out ways to expand their battle plan to fight for more seats. And their donors appear increasingly motivated: Last month, the House Democratic campaign raised $12 million while House Republicans raised just $4.6 million, a remarkable disparity given that the party in control usually dominates fund-raising.....Ms. Pelosi [had] highlighted an academic study that suggested the majority might be within reach." "While Democrats have sought publicly to temper expectations that they could win the House, in private meetings they are laying out ways to expand their battle plan to fight for more seats. And their donors appear increasingly motivated: Last month, the House Democratic campaign raised $12 million while House Republicans raised just $4.6 million, a remarkable disparity given that the party in control usually dominates fund-raising. Ms. Pelosi ... highlighted an academic study that suggested the majority might be within reach."Democrats See Opening in Traditional G.O.P. Bastions

As the old song so aptly says, "Dream when you're feeling blue, Dream and it may come true".  

But how could it actually happen? Didn't redistricting after the 2010 census lock in GOP control of the House? Theoretically, yes. But even a registration majority can be oversome if enough GOP stay home, vote third party, or switch to Hillary because Trump is so repulsive. Normally Republicans voters are exetremly loyal to their party and are high performing, unlike Democrats who have to be dragged to the polls and often switch to a GOP candidate who talks the talk. In fact, a district is not considered Democratic unless more that 60% of the voters are registered Democratic. Even a 60% district is squishy. So now we shall have a chance to see exactly how squishy GOP districts can get. If ever a presidential candidate has pushed his down-ballot cohorts into wobblyland, this is it. We shall possibly see a real testing of the percentage GOP registration that is necessary to secure a sure win for a GOP House candidate.

As the old curse says, "May you live in interesting times."











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