Thursday, November 1, 2012

The Most Accurate Poll Picks Obama

All of the people are right lots of the time.

Or more than 80% of the time historically when the question they are asked is:  Who do you think will win the election?

This is the fascinating finding of a study just released today by some heavy-duty guys.  (It's actually something I've heard whispered before.)  Apparently we know more about how our fellow citizens will vote than do the pollsters who ask them directly.  For one thing, the general public knows a lot more folks than the voters will ever get around to interviewing, and therefore we form a sense of what's going down.

So what's the good news?  The people expect Obama to win!  And the expectation is running pretty high.  Unbelievably high compared to what the pollsters are sensing.

Therefore, without further lame attempt to build suspense, here are the results of two polls coincidentally released today on this very topic.  Gallup shows that  people believe by 54% to 32% that Obama will win.  Reuters/Ipsos finds that 53% believe Obama will win compared to ONLY 29% who expect Romney to win.

That's quite a gap!

But note that about 20% of the voting public are missing from these results.  Does that undercut the value of the assessment as it would in some kind of polling?  I have to think about that, but off-hand it doesn't seem like it should.

Oddly enough, pollsters have not often thought of asking this question about who you think will win an election.  But they have done it off and on going all the way back to 1936.  I like to think about 1936, the year FDR won a second term even though the economy was still hobbling.

Tomorrow morning the October unemployment figures come out.  But sufficient unto the day is this news today about what our fellow citizens think will happen on Tuesday.

So smile.  And keep your fingers crossed!  Maybe our fellow Americans are right!


So, Romney, your fellow Americans think you are a loser.  Maybe you won the battle of the tax returns release but it looks like you lost the war for hearts and minds.  It even looks like some number of your own voters think you are a loser!  And you are!      

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