Saturday, November 3, 2012

Coming Down to the Wire!

It seems like this campaign has been going on for four years.  And it has.  Mitch McConnell began the anti-Obama campaign before the new president even had a chance to hang his trousers over the back of a chair in the White House.  "We will make him a one-term president", Mitch announced.

So will they?

Traditional wisdom is that the candidate who leads going into the last weekend usually wins.

On this Saturday morning President Obama is leading in the polls, and poll analyst par excellence Nate Silver now pegs him at 305.3 electoral college votes and an 83.7% chance of winning, with a national vote total of 50.6%.

All the polls except GOP-leaning Rasmussen show the President having increased his lead day by day in incremental amounts over the past week or so, especially in the swing states.  That's called a trend.

Ohio.  Ohio.  Ohio.

It's the biggie and it's looking pretty good.  Nate Silver gives Obama an 84% chance of winning the state, and the polling spread average is about 3 points in Obama's favor.  Not as great as the 8 points after the Democratic convention, but polls generally tighten just before an election.  What matters is that Ohio has held the 3-point spread steadily these past couple of weeks.

If Ohio goes to Obama, he's pretty well got a lock on the electoral college.  As I've said a zillion times over the past months.

There are still power outages in Cleveland as of yesterday, per a phone call with a contact there.  That's not good because the Cleveland and Toledo areas are where Obama must do very well to offset the rural GOP vote.

And the GOP in Ohio will likely pull every dirty trick imaginable (and some yet-to-be-imagined).  Remember 2004 when they stole the state from Kerry by having too-few polling places in Democratic areas?  On the other hand, the Obama campaign will have 650 lawyers in Ohio to try and keep things straight.  And the federal Department of Justice is sending out FBI and other officials to keep an eye on things in various states.

We have fought an uphill battle for 4 years.  Against the worst economic mess since the Great Depression, the parting gift of George W.  We have stood against the over-critical, know-it-all "intellectual" liberals in our own party.  We have watched our fine young president be smeared by lies and racist hate.  God help us all, we have had to watch the likes of scum such as Donald Trump abusing the airwaves with unmitigated crap.  And his hair.

We have had to dig into our shallow pockets to match the money of billionaires determined to buy the presidency so they can loot our country.

And all the while, we have had to watch that nice skinny guy get grayer and grayer and thinner and thinner.

But the smile is still there.  And it's in our hearts too.  We are in a respectable position at the end of what was pundited as a doomed race because of the economy.  Obama has campaigned ferociously.  So have we.

And he has done it honorably, as have we.  Romney and the GOP have seemingly lost all sense of what the word "honor" means.  Let us hope that the outcome of the election reaffirms that honor and truth still mean something in this country.

Let us be of good heart and go rejoicing, bringing in the votes.


So, Mitt, did your unreleased tax returns show that you owned some of the action in the auto parts scandal that is just starting to surface?  That's what folks are saying, Mitt.  And if this story doesn't break in time for the election, think what fun it will be if you win and have this scandal to welcome you to the White House.  Buried rotten things have a way of sending stinky gases up to the surface.  Just hope you don't win, Mitt, because there's an awful lot of pigeon-poop waiting to drop on your coiffure (to mix my smelly metaphors).  No sensible candidate would have hidden those tax returns unless there was something really awful to hide.  Like criminal infractions.  Nixon got impeached in part for tax stuff.  Getting ready for impeachment, are you, Mitt?  But don't worry.  The polls are against you, and it looks like you'll most likely lose the presidency and stay out of jail.  Lucky you.  Luckier us.  



No comments:

Post a Comment