Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election Day Clues To Outcome


And here's a few indicators to hang on to while waiting for the tallies:

1. Statistics Guru Nate Silver has upped his estimate of Obama's electoral college vote to 315.  That's a jump of 10 votes in the last few days.  It's based on the consistent and growing lead of Obama in the polling and is right in line with others who look to the numbers instead of a vague "sense" of the campaign.  Best of all, Nate has finally rounded off his electoral college numbers and is awarding whole electors!  This saves me puzzling over what in the hell a sixth-tenths of an elector looks like.

2. Historically the stock market predicts the election.  It depends on the market's rise or fall between Labor Day and Election Day.  As I write the Dow is up about 200 points from Election Day.  Wowsa!

3. An incumbent's job approval rating usually is the same as what he will get on election day on votes. As of yesterday Gallup had Obama's approval rating at 52%!  It's been a long time since he's been at 50%!

4. One of the most highly regarded analysts  (Andy Kohut of Pew polling)) notes something I mentioned several blogs ago:  The voters' prediction of who will win is uncannily accurate.  And this time the uncanny is with Obama by a nice lead.  Well over 50% of voters think he's going to win. Only about 30% pick Romney.

5. Similarly, this guru points out that an edge in "strongly supports"  means that the candidate those supporters support is going to win.  (It also means I get to write a sentence loaded with the uncanny word "support".)  Happily, Obama leads Romney in "strongly supports" supportive supporters.  (Three uses in a row!)

6. And, finally, Obama's supporters are not only strong for their guy, but supporting him is their chief motive in voting.  According to the polls, Romney's voters predictably are voting for R mainly because they don't like  our President.  Per studies, the candidate whose supporters are FOR him and not just ANTI the other guy  .....  well, you guessed it!  He wins!

So  -  absent chicanery in Ohio  -  Obama should make it.  With its 18 votes, plus the base of states that went for Kerry, plus Wisconsin and Iowa or Nevada, he gets the 270 that wins the electoral college.  He leads in Ohio in all polls.  He has twice as many or more campaign offices there.  And he has the blessed UAW.

But absence of chicanery is not assured.  Ohio has a dismal record of GOP voting chicanery.  Supposedly the Obama campaign, the federal Department of Justice and pro-voting groups have over a thousand personnel on hand in Ohio to protect the election.

What about Florida?  The GOP there has already started its usual tricks to deny people their sacred vote.  But if we get Ohio, we don't need Florida, and it can twist in its own chicanery but to no avail.

If this posting is a bit more discombobulated than usual, chalk it up to the great high that comes off having JUST  VOTED!  Yeah, folks, Grandma just went and did it!

Now, go ye and do likewise!      


  1. Thanks Dorothy for all you have done to help put keep America on track to greatness again. Your blog pushed me from a non-voter to a an active participant in the Obama campaign. You are a true patriot.

  2. Thank you, Charles, for some of the kindest words anyone has ever said to me. But far more thanks for your work for our common cause. You have helped make the future hopeful for my grandchildren, and there are no words adequate enough to express my thanks for that. Thanks to you and all who like you have made this a brighter world. May you have a wonderful time in this wonderful world where good things can and do happen because there are good people like you.