Thanks to Donald Trump for All These Gifts!

ADD: The Editorial BoardHow Trump Has Hurt the Gun Lobby  nyt 2-12-19





OUR BIG THANKS TO DONALD TRUMP!

Trump unwittingly has done great good things for the Democrats and Independents and for America. Let us give thanks to Mr. Trump for the following gifts to us:🙏

1. For all your verbal attacks on women and bragging about grabbing their genitals, we thank you. You've fired up legions of women to organize against you, win over 100 seats in the Congress, and generally not just roar like lions but become tigers! Even GOP women are now tigers and snarling!! 

2. For firing up the usually non-participating young people. They have come out in droves to organize politically and to vote. You appall them. You are dooming them to a life without a future and without hope, an approaching era of mass die-offs and hideous weather events and fires and shrinking usable land mass. All because you want to be cozy with the oil and coal workers.

3. For appointing Whitaker to be Acting Attorny General, Whitaker being the man most obviously unable to get away with firing Special Prosecutor Mueller.

4. For riling up Congress against more arms sales to the Saudis. You did this by refusing to condemn the Saudis' murder of an American resident and columnist. (New party invitation: "Bring a bone saw!")

5. For alerting blacks, Jews, Muslims, and anybody not of your white northern European background to the fact we still have a ways to go in overcoming society's prejudices and its tendency to kill us. Golly, how could we Jews have thought we were safe in America?! Now all the fore-named groups may come together to withstand the forces of hatred. And the big celebrities can make TV spots about how we should not hate people.

6. For threatening our parks and wilderness set-asides. Now there will be a great media education process as these wildlands and parks become more and more the center of litigation. (You really goofed on this one, buddy. Americans love their public lands, except for residents of a few states whose votes you have anyway.) 

7. For a full-employment program for American attorneys. All kinds of lawyers, from ACLU to giant corporate firms are happily busy suing you to stop all your cockamamy nonsense.

8. For the huge tax break for yourself and your wealthy friends. This has put Medicare and Social Security at risk. And Americans love these two even more than they love the federal parks, thus guranteeing your political life will perish on the Third Rail of American politics i.e. the entitlements Medicare and Social Securty. And by the way, they are called entitlements because we paid into them and thus we are entitled to them.)

9. For killing off the GOP. It's done for as a party since you have driven out all the decent folk and exposed the GOP turncoats in the Senate and House who threw their lot in with you. All that's left of the GOP is your Trump Party as a rump party, the 30% of Americans who like to be angry and are afraid of a coming non-white majority. 

10. For being such a jerk that you will likely be enshrined as the first American monster. "Don't do that, Bobby! Do you want to turn into a Trump?!"

That's enough Mr. Trump. That's about all the gifts from you we can stand.

Let the Voting Begin.....

In five hours our neighbors up in the mountains of New Hampshire will begin voting. Finally the day is arriving when hopefully we can deliver ourselves, our nation, and our future from the hate and lies and cruelty of Trumpism. 

If the Democrats win the House perhaps the House can find out what has happened to the children Trump took from their families. That cruelty must be undone!

Other bad things must be undone or stopped. There are many hopes riding on the voting that begins in  New Hampshire in a few hours. 

God bless and help America.

I'm Back! And With Possible Keys to Tuesday's Outcome?

Broken bones and patch-up surgeries in my right arm are all healed. As a writer, I am back and just in time for the midterms.  

There's a lot of prognosticating in these last days before the midterm elections. These points from a very good article seem to me very important.

........"Among those who say they are certain to vote or already have voted, Democrats enjoy a nine-point advantage, while those who say they probably will vote or that the chances are “50-50” tip toward Republicans by four points, with 10 percent undecided."

......"Democrats have a 51-to- 44 percent advantage among likely voters.That seven-point margin, which is in line with other polls taken in the past two weeks, puts Democrats roughly within range of what they probably will need in the overall national vote for the House to capture a majority from the Republicans, based on calculations from previous midterm campaigns."
......"Public and private polls of individual races conducted by candidates, political party committees, the media and others show many contests still within the margin of error."
.....Among registered voters, 71 percent say the economy is good or excellent, up from 60 percent in August. Those who give the economy positive ratings favor Republican candidates for the House by 54 to 40 percent, wider than the 49 to 42 percent margin in August."
......"Trump’s approval rating among all adults stands at 40 percent, holding steady from a poll in early October and slightly higher than his 36 percent rating in August. Those who disapprove account for 53 percent. Among registered voters, Trump’s approval is 44 percent, with disapproval at 52 percent, the best margin among this group during his presidency."
......"The share of Republicans saying immigration is “one of the most important issues” in their vote has grown from 14 percent to 21 percent. The share of Democrats saying immigration is a top issue has dropped from 23 percent to 11 percent."

The above are from Poll: Democrats lead in House preferences, but voters’ views on economy, border security may buoy GOP

          Please note that the outcome in the last point is not what it may appear on its surface. The Democrats are a much bigger group than the GOP so a 12% Democratic drop in interest in immigration is a  bigger part of the electorate than the apparent 5 point spread between the 7 point gain in interest among GOP and the 12% loss of interest among Dems. The Democrats number almost one-third more than GOP. The moral of the story: always ask "Percentage of what?"

..........Between now and Tuesday remember our motto: Vote early and often!..........

Here's How We Defeat Trump's 40-year Supreme Court!

I apologize for writing a post on Facebook on Labor Day expressing my deep fears and sorrow about 40 years ahead with Trump judges running the Supreme Court. Then that evening I had a thought. It's an old one. It actually occurred to the Founding Fathers over 230 years ago and more recently to California governor Jerry Brown these past eight years, especially since Trump claimed the presidency and started destroying our rights and protections. 

And what is this precious thought? 

That the states can enact laws to protect the people from the very evils Trump's court will let loose on them. California Governor Jerry Brown has been doing it for quite a while to control the nasty stuff in gasoline. Several states including California are doing this regarding marijuana and also immigrant sanctuary. Increasingly states will be taking over health care. A Big Divergence Is Coming in Health Care Among States  nyt 3-5-18 I knew Jerry Brown's dad even before I knew Jerry. He was Gov. Pat Brown, and he would be proud of you, Jerry.

I too am finally proud of you. I was proud to be one of the first four women to hold an executive job in California state government back in the mid-1970's. But now, Governor, I am actually glad it was you I worked for. (Back then I was not one of your admirers because you were a bit of a brat!) Now, Jerry, give 'em hell! 

Likewise you other Democratic governors and the Democratic state legislatures that will emerge from this November election. 

And for you, my reader friends, I say as did Edward R. Murrow back in his days fighting Joe McCarthy, "To all of you...good night and good luck." 

Tomorrow we pick up the fight to out-maneuver Trump and his 40-year court!

100% of Nothing Is Stlll Nothing as Trump Support Melts

How deceptive numbers can be for those who don't understand them. Let's look at a typical piece of  misunderstanding that appeared in July in the New York Times.  (Note that Trump's current disapproval rating is 60% so the  "all-time high" mentioned below by this excited Times writer sure didn't last long.)  

This Times writer mainly seems in awe of Trump's rating among Republicans and credits it with being the main factor in Trump's  supposedly great showing in the polls: "Trump has seen his approval rating tick up to 45 percent, an all-time high for him in the survey. Trump’s high rating, up one percent from June, is thanks largely to support of Republicans, 88 percent of whom told pollsters that they approve of the job he’s doing. Among them, 64 percent strongly approve of Trump, who is experiencing an almost unheard-of level of support from members of his own party.”New York Magazine & see NYT 7-25-18 Blow: What Doesn’t Kill Him Makes Him Stronger  

This writer is virtually saying, "Wow! 88% of Republicans support Trump! 88%! That's a big number!"

Not here it isn't. It's merely a high percentage of something that is small. In actuality the GOP has shrunk to being merely 24% of the electorate. In having 88% support of this pathetically small slice of the electorate, Trump has the support of only 19% of the total electorate. He might as well kiss 2020 goodbye right now.

Further, the GOP slice of the pie has recently shrunk 2%, indicating that the GOP is in trouble in two ways: (1) it's losing voters and (2) what's left behind is likely more radical than the party was before Trump and this will likely drive away even more voters. The GOP is strangling itself with Trump.

The numbers - when read correctly - carry even more bad news for both Trump and the GOP.  While 88% of GOP approve of him, only 64% of GOP voters "strongly approve." That indicates some squishiness in his ranks, a possibilty of defection of almost one-fourth of his supporters. This is especially noteworthy because - given Trump's appalling character and manner - it seems likely that anyone who was on board for him would be all the way on board. But almost a fourth are only partially committed.

Something else bodes ill for Trump. As we have seen, he has 88% of 24% of the electorate, i.e. only 19% of the entire electorate. But polling tells us his approval in the entire electorate hovers between 30% and 35%. This means 11% to 16% of Trump's support in the total electorate is probably among Independents. And this means they are not as anchored to him as they would likely be if they were GOP. From my 60 years in politics, I can confidently say two things about Republicans: (1) they vote come hell or high water, and (2) they are wildly committed to their party. Not so with Independents.Their very title indicates they aren't committed anywhere. The Democrats thus have a real shot at peeling off a goodly chunk of Trump's present support.

While these numbers paint a cloud over Trump, other numbers also indicate he is in trouble. For example, 63% of the electorate believe Special Investigator Robert Mueller as opposed to Trump. Since Mueller is possibly going to try to put Trump in jail, this number is very significant.
                                                         
                                                               
AND LO AND BEHOLD! While I was writing the above, predicting Trump was on a downhill slide, these new poll numbers were just issued. Now it's my turn to say Wow!

"Just 36% say they approve of the job President Trump is doing, a 5-point drop from last month, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll. Fifty six percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance, up from 53% the month before. …

Trump lost significant ground on job approval with Republicans this month, which fell from 83% last month to 76% this month. Among independents, Trump’s approval dropped 4 points to 33%. Democratic approval has never been above the low single digits.

"He also saw a big drop in support from men (it went from 49% last month to 40% today)."

The chickens are coming home to roost!

*****************
Hereafter keep this little slogan in mind: 100% of nothing is still nothing. If Trump had a large % of the GOP and the GOP is very small, Trump didn't have much. And his little bit is getting smaller and smaller.

Now if only the Democrats could find a way to block Trump's Supreme Court apppointments....

CLARITY NOTE: The numbers out today refer to numbers "from last month", i.e. August. You may have noticed these are different from the numbers in the quote I used early on. That's because those numbers are from July.

Trump didn't win the presidency and therefore can certainly be indicted and prosecuted

I am keeping this short and sweet: Donald Trump's claim to the presidency is fraudulent and thus he can indeed be indicted.

Trump stole the Oval Office. Trump is NOT a sitting president and therefore he CAN be prosecuted. By the sworn testimony of his co-conspirator and former attorney, Michael Cohen, Trump "directed" Cohen to break federal election campaign law so as to hide important information which could have influenced voters to vote against him. It was an extremely close election; only 77,000 votes in three states gave Trump the electoral college. By contrast Hillary Clinton out-paced Trump by 3 million votes nationally. Clearly Trump has no claim on a presidency he "won" by fraud. Under our laws, one cannot keep what he has stolen. Ill-gotten gains are not gains at all.

Let's hope Mueller sees it that way.

The Beginning of the End of Trump

So much has happened in the last two days that the best I can do is give this review in chunks. Like bulletins. Because that is how it happened. For example the Michael Cohen confession and the Paul Manafort conviction came at almost the same minute!

# 1. TRUMP HAS COMMITTED A FELONY! AND HAS BEEN RECORDED ADMITTING IT. Trump's  fix-it guy and sort of attorney Michael Cohen has now said in sworn testimony that in the weeks before the 2016 election, Trump directed him to pay off a woman who alleged an affair with Trump. Hushing her was necessary, Trump made clear, in order to protect his chances in the election. He thereby defrauded the public of knowing necessary information and also screwed up the way the hush money was paid so that he and Cohen committed a felony under election finance laws.  In addition to Cohen's sworn testimoney, he has previously provided the tape recording of Trump discussing the hush money payoff.

 #2 . TRUMP IS NOW EMINENTLY IMPEACHABLE. The grounds for impeachment are blatant and numerous, but now we have one that is virtualy inarguable, i.e.the payment of hush money to secure his winning the election. Here's an expert opinion:

"Does Trump's paying off the women constitute enough of an offense to warrant impeachment? The framers thought so. 'The campaign finance violation President Trump’s former lawyer accused him of on Tuesday — arranging to pay hush money to influence an election — may be precisely the sort of offense that the drafters of the Constitution meant to cover in granting Congress the power to impeach and remove a president.' " This quote is from a discussion of a book analyzing the framers views on impeachment:' "When Is an Offense Impeachable? Look to the Framers for the ...                     

#3. TRUMP'S SO-CALLED PRESIDENCY WAS A NULLITY BECAUSE OBTAINED BY FRAUD. Therefore all his supposed presidential acts are nullities, including his recent Supreme Court appointment and all the other federal judicial and other appointments he has made.  His attempts to do stupid things, like nullifying  environmental regulations and messing with tariffs, will be automatically reversed since he lacked the authority to launch such. Our allies can sigh with relief that the crazy man is gone, and we can repair our mutual defense groups and trade agreements. And someone else will head our government and make a super-strong effort to find the 600 children and get them back to their parents. Lots more good things will happen but that's for another time.

#4. PENCE WILL NOT BE PRESIDENT. He got into the office of Vice President on the same ticket as Trump and thus with the help of the same crookedness Trump used. His supposed election is therefore a nullity.

#5. IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE IMPEACHMENT, A DEMOCRAT WILL BE PRESIDENT. The Constitutional order of succession is President, Vice President, Speaker of the House.  If Democrats win the House in November, the Democratic Speaker of the House will succeed the impeached president and vice president. As the Bard once said, "It is a consumation devoutly to be wished". Getting rid of Trump only to then have been saddled with Pence would have been awful. But it doesn't it have to be that way.

Time out now for a good night's sleep before I survey more of the Trump crash site and try to make sense of the whole lot. And hopefully I can find answers to such questions as, "Will Trump pardon Manafort?"  (No. And I'll explain why not.)

I think it was Gerry Ford who said after Watergate and Nixon's resignation, "America's long nightmare is over." We can't say that yet. But at least it appears as if an ending is possible and perhaps is coming sooner than we have thought.

Again, a consummation devoutly to be wished.

Good night now. I think we are all sleeping better these nights, right?