There's a lot of prognosticating in these last days before the midterm elections. These points from a very good article seem to me very important.
........"Among those who say they are certain to vote or already have voted, Democrats enjoy a nine-point advantage, while those who say they probably will vote or that the chances are “50-50” tip toward Republicans by four points, with 10 percent undecided."
......"Democrats have a 51-to- 44 percent advantage among likely voters.That seven-point margin, which is in line with other polls taken in the past two weeks, puts Democrats roughly within range of what they probably will need in the overall national vote for the House to capture a majority from the Republicans, based on calculations from previous midterm campaigns."
......"Public and private polls of individual races conducted by candidates, political party committees, the media and others show many contests still within the margin of error."
.....Among registered voters, 71 percent say the economy is good or excellent, up from 60 percent in August. Those who give the economy positive ratings favor Republican candidates for the House by 54 to 40 percent, wider than the 49 to 42 percent margin in August."
......"Trump’s approval rating among all adults stands at 40 percent, holding steady from a poll in early October and slightly higher than his 36 percent rating in August. Those who disapprove account for 53 percent. Among registered voters, Trump’s approval is 44 percent, with disapproval at 52 percent, the best margin among this group during his presidency."
......"The share of Republicans saying immigration is “one of the most important issues” in their vote has grown from 14 percent to 21 percent. The share of Democrats saying immigration is a top issue has dropped from 23 percent to 11 percent."
......"Public and private polls of individual races conducted by candidates, political party committees, the media and others show many contests still within the margin of error."
.....Among registered voters, 71 percent say the economy is good or excellent, up from 60 percent in August. Those who give the economy positive ratings favor Republican candidates for the House by 54 to 40 percent, wider than the 49 to 42 percent margin in August."
......"Trump’s approval rating among all adults stands at 40 percent, holding steady from a poll in early October and slightly higher than his 36 percent rating in August. Those who disapprove account for 53 percent. Among registered voters, Trump’s approval is 44 percent, with disapproval at 52 percent, the best margin among this group during his presidency."
......"The share of Republicans saying immigration is “one of the most important issues” in their vote has grown from 14 percent to 21 percent. The share of Democrats saying immigration is a top issue has dropped from 23 percent to 11 percent."
The above are from Poll: Democrats lead in House preferences, but voters’ views on economy, border security may buoy GOP
Please note that the outcome in the last point is not what it may appear on its surface. The Democrats are a much bigger group than the GOP so a 12% Democratic drop in interest in immigration is a bigger part of the electorate than the apparent 5 point spread between the 7 point gain in interest among GOP and the 12% loss of interest among Dems. The Democrats number almost one-third more than GOP. The moral of the story: always ask "Percentage of what?"
..........Between now and Tuesday remember our motto: Vote early and often!..........
Please note that the outcome in the last point is not what it may appear on its surface. The Democrats are a much bigger group than the GOP so a 12% Democratic drop in interest in immigration is a bigger part of the electorate than the apparent 5 point spread between the 7 point gain in interest among GOP and the 12% loss of interest among Dems. The Democrats number almost one-third more than GOP. The moral of the story: always ask "Percentage of what?"
..........Between now and Tuesday remember our motto: Vote early and often!..........
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