Saturday, November 5, 2016

Hillary Is Winning! So Stop Being Anxious!

Hillary Clinton is winning the presidency!

"Wait!" you say. "Aren't we hearing a lot about the polls tightening?"

Ignore that. The polls at this point don't mean much, especially this year. The postscript at the end has  one theory on the non-significance of these poll swings. And keep in mind that, tightening or no tightening, Clinton's still leading!

So if we ignore the polls, what can foretell Tuesday's outcome? Sure, there's the fact my Cubs won the World Series, meaning anything good can happen. But aside from that truth, there are solid, fact-based reasons we know she is winning.

Number One of Clinton-is-winning:  Moody's Analytics is usually focused on rating nations and companies as to their worth and credit-worthiness, but  it goes political every four years and has correctly predicted every presidential race since Reagan's win in 1980. Paying no attenton to polls, this is what Moody's predicts for next Tuesday (as you'll see, it's based on other factors besides an "economic forecast".)


Moody's Analytics model predicts big Clinton win - Nov. 1, 2016

In making its projection, Moody's uses economic factors that determine the public's sense of well-being. These include the currently low gas prices (everyone is aware of them because they are posted along all the streets.) Another factor is household income, which has been rising according to this week's end-of-month Department of Labor report. Currently rising home prices are the third factor, making everyone feel richer. And the unempoyment rate just fell to 4.9! A new low since 2008 and one seldom seen since Bill Clinton was president.

Moody's also uses political factors. First is the outgoing president's standing. Obama is in great shape at 55% approval, one of the highest of any retiring president ever. A second consideration is the general partisan leaning of each state. Democrats at present tend to dominate in the most populous states with the highest number of electoral college votes: California, New York, Illinois...well, you get the idea. A third consideration is called "political fatigue" which means that some states tend to switch parties every few years, but that's really getting into the weeds.

Let's move on to Number Two of  Clinton-is-winning: We know Clinton is going to win because you—the voter—tell us so. Like Moody's, the voters have never been wrong in calling the presidential race. People call it correctly even when they are voting for the other candidate! As of last week nearly 70% of voters said Clinton is going to win. Poll: Nearly 7 in 10 voters think Clinton will win election ...

There is another group in this category of "never been wrong": the school children. Famous for prediction US school foresees Hillary Clinton win ... They too have picked Clinton.

And if you can't trust these two groups with these great track records, will you trust the gamblers, the people willing to actually lay their actual money on Clinton? The gambling odds in favor of Clinton are effectivelt 4-to-1. Live Betting Odds

Number Three:  If you need more reassurance, here's a blockbuster, almost a too-good-to-be-true.  A smart pollster decided to stop asking people how they would vote and instead asked those who have already voted to tell how they had actually voted. This was done in Florida, where the state publishes the name and party of those who have done early voting. When these actual voters were interviewed, it was discovered that 28% of Florida Republicans had voted for Clinton! That is stunning! (I'll bet they were GOP women!)  Based on this, these same pollsters project Clinton will beat Trump in Florida by eight points!  TargetSmart/William & Mary survey featured on MSNBC   Keep in mind that Trump cannot win the electoral college without Florida!

Need more reassurance? Number Four is from the noted Larry Sabato and the University 0f Virginia Center for Politics. Florida is the only toss-up in his prediction, and Clinton—even without Florida— is at 293 electoral votes v. the 270 she needs to win. Trump is locked out even if he wins Florida.



 


Number Five: You can't need more reassurance! But in case you do, here's a whopper. As of last night, Princeton Election Consortium joined UVA in calling the race for Clinton. Prior to this, in mid-October its charming director, Professor Sam Wang, twittered, "It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug." This evening he doubled down, saying that Hillary has a 99% chance of winning and will have at least 330 electoral votes. He didn't say anything more about eating bugs. He did, however, mention "72 quadrillion" calculations in his analytic process. (He has a hell of a computer it seems.)

Number Six depends on Governor John Kasich of Ohio. Of all the enemies he has callously made, Trump couldn't have picked a worse one than Ohio's GOP Governor John Kasich. You remember Kasich in the GOP primaries? Trump just squashed him like the bug that Professor Wang would be willing to eat. Keep in mind it's almost impossible for a Republican to win the White House without Ohio. And Ohio is Kasich's  fiefdom. In the bent politics of Ohio, Kasich can bend things any way he wants to. Just recall that a GOP official in Ohio cost Kerry the election in 2004. It just suddenly became real hard for Kerry's supporters to vote. Oddly enough, Trump is right about"rigged elections" but he picked the wrong state (Pennsylvania) and the wrong party. It could be the GOP in Ohio who rigs things against him!

But Kasich can screw Trump even without messing with the voting. He can just quietly bar the Ohio GOP from doing any get out the vote for Trump. Remember that Kasich has opposed Trump all along, even to staying away from the GOP convention in his very own state. That's real hate, baby! Plus Kasich wants the helm in rebuilding the GOP in the wake of Trump's crazy run. So his future depends on being sure Trump has none. Without a good ground effort to identify Trump supporters and get out their vote, chances are lots of them won't show up. Do you realize how many of Trump's previously non-voting supporters don't even know you have to be registered to vote? I live amongst them here in the mountains of Appalachian Pennsylvania and I can tell you that lots don't know much of anything of how voting or government work. But I love them in spite of their willful ignorance and prejudices,  and—like Michael Moore— I bitterly resent how Trump has misled and exploited them.

Now Kasich alone may even the score for them. As we said in show biz, Everyone you step on in your climb is waiting to kick you on your way down. Let's hope good ol' Kicker Kasich does the job!

Saturday's sparkling autumn morning brings more reassurance with Number Seven: Here's from today's NY Times:



Think of it like this: Would you take a trip in a car that had only a 16% chance of making it without going off the road?  Clinton is still leading in the polls in enough states to give her 270+ electoral votes. 2016 Election Forecast Updated 9 minutes ago and RCP Poll Average. In fact, no respectable pollster or analyst is putting Trump in the lead or expecting him to get there.

Please keep in mind that Trump never has led Clinton. Her range has been upper forties and his has been low to mid 40s. They bounce around in those ranges, but she's never slid under her lower fence and he's never jumped his upper one. Think of Trump's upper fence as his famous tall wall. It's the only wall he's built or ever going to build,  and it's keeping him out of the White House. Ha ha on you, Trump!

That brings us to Number Seven:  By threatening to deport millions of undocumented Latinos, Trump has awakened a sleeping tiger. Live Updates: Hispanics Surge to Polls as Race Nears the End In the West and in Florida—glory be!—Latinos are voting like crazy wherever voting's started.  It's a phenomenal increase, and it looks like they will more than cover any drop-off rate in African American voting. I'll write more about this after the election because it is a phenomenon I've waited 48 years for and worked hard for, as did others. But we failed for 48 years. Now Trump—with his amazing idiocy and threats and insults—has made it happen. He wanted to give tickets to the eleven million undocumented for a one-way ride on a government bus to Mexico, and now the citizen-relatives of those undocumented are giving Trump what we call in Spanish "La Avila".
                                                           ****************

That's seven big fat reasons to relax, Or at least stop getting knots in your stomach. Your old mama has spoken. Thank me by trying to enjoy this momentous ride through history. We are in the front seats of the front car on a ride that's an adventure. All adventures have to have fear and risks, right? But we know it will come out okay. I'll now mention the strongest reason of all even if it's culturally a no-no to mention Him, but I have been storming at Him for way over a year with the fervor of an old Jewish Irish Catholic, using the irrefutable logic that He gave us the miracle of an African American president in this racist country and thus it makes no sense for Him to let Trump be president now and undo all of Obama's good works. His answer is a smile and the usual, "I don't make evil. Humans do. You have the power to stop Trump. Just vote early and often and help with Democratic get-out-the-vote."

He's right. He always is! It's not too late to call your local Democrats and volunteer for get out the vote work between now and election day. For what else did God and/or the Jews create the weekend?

(I say"Him" because it's easiest. Frankly, I have no idea what or whom The One is. The One takes care of that, and I do politics. By the way, did you ever realize that the story of Jesus is a political story?)

Well, like Porky Pig used to say, "That's all, folks" ....... But not quite. Tuesday has yet to come. Only two more days. You can't count today because it's half over. And you can't count Election Day itself because that's like counting December 25 as one of the days until Christmas. Nonsense! Nevertheless, the media keep saying four days! Well, if they can't even count the days correctly, why trust them enough to let them get you worried? Also the media drones on about "the undecideds". Bosh! There's no actual undecideds. That's just people ashamed to admit they are not voters. I've been through this with them in 18 presidential elections since I was age 8. At this point there are no undecideds!

Just keep saying to yourself, "That blasphemer Old Mama Dorothy and God The Father both say it will be okay. Screw the alarmists on TV! And if it isn't okay, Mama Dorothy is leading an Exodus to the mild climate ofVancouver, British Columbia, or to Ireland. Another adventure!"

And also keep chanting, "If the Cubs can win the damn Series, anything good can happen!"

You okay now? Stay okay! I love you all.

Vote early and often!
____________
P.S. One credible theory on the non-significance of polling wobbles: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/08/don_t_be_fooled_by_clinton_trump_polling_bounces.html






2 comments:

  1. Great reporting!! Thanks for the uplift...

    ReplyDelete