Take Heart! Elton John Won't Be Helping Trump Either!

Two days after the election I posted a piece discussing how Trump cannot carry out all the frightening nonsense he spewed in his campaign. What Can Trump REALLY Do?

Since then other writers have finally stopped beating the drums of terror and started looking at the reality of the limits on Trump and his GOP Congress. They too foresee Trump and the GOP Congress having a hard time trying to wreck Obama's legacy and mess up this country. Below is a list of recent articles you may want to read, but just the headlines alone should give you some reassurance.

As I said in my November 11 post and is reiterated in these articles by others, it's very hard to turn the ship of state. Checks and balances exist throughout our system, states have adopted many of the same laws as the feds, businesses now see the sense of environmentalism and have invested in it, market forces are supporting a switch to clean fuels, and on and on.

And what about the fear that Trump will round up and imprison vast numbers of our people? In 1968 I lit the spark that led to enactment in 1971 of a federal law which effectively bans federal mass arrest and detention in the absence of an act specifically made criminal by Congress. This law was cited by the Supreme Court in the Guantanamo cases, ordering the Feds to give the detainees the due process that is required by our Constitution.

I mention this because it shows what we can do to oppose any president doing Nazi-type things. The law was my response to the rounding up and internment of the Japanese Americans during World War II. This crime against our fellow Americans took place when I was a child, far from where it happened. Some of those detainees were subsequently my beloved journlism teacher, a best friend in college, my first candidate, and other good friends. If one young woman, enraged by a long ago offense by her government, can set off such reaction to an injustice of thirty years earlier, think what the young millennials can do now if the "knock on the door in the night" begins in our nation.

Now here's the list of reassuring headlines. Maybe you'll even read some of the articles.  Whether you do or not,  please take heart. As Yogi Bera said, "It ain't the end of the world until it's the end of the world."

 Why Trump’s Education Pick Won’t Be Able to Privatize U.S. Schools

Betsy DeVos and the Wrong Way to Fix Schools

 U.S. Companies to Trump: Don’t Abandon Global Climate Deal

Trump’s Proposals Won’t Help The White Working Class — Or The Urban Poor 

President Trump's Toughest Foe: The Bureaucracy

 U.S. Companies to Trump: Don’t Abandon Global Climate Deal 

Trump Probably Can’t Get Roe v. Wade Overturned


There is yet another constraint on Trump, one that no one has yet considered so far as I know. It's the principle of "bad managers drive away competent people." If Trump persists in appointing extremists and power-bloated billionaires, the talent these top bosses need to hire will snub them. Extremists and billionaires from the private sector generally are regarded as bad bosses. And it's very hard to get anything done in government without hiring people who know where the "on button" is. The Trump folks can't even get Elton John to sing at the inauguration!

So sit back and watch Trump and the GOP flail. Soon begins the circular firing squad?

As we wait in our front row seats, please pass the popcorn.

Senate Election Still Open! But the Democratic Party Snores!

Here's an example of how slack the current Democratic leadership has become. Why does Rachel Maddow have to be the one to tell us that the Democrats have a real shot at coming within one vote of taking the Senate majority and thereby blocking Trump's worst Supreme Court nominees and stopping Paul Ryan's plan to gut Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and our environmental laws.

It all hangs now on Louisiana, where a runoff for a U.S. Senate seat is December 10. If the Democrats pick up that seat, they will have 49 votes, including the two Independents who already routinely caucus with the Democrats. Plus GOP Senator Susan Collins will likely vote with the Democrats to block the wilder of Trump and Ryan's schemes. After all, she was brave enough to withstand the GOP and its snarling, spitting Tea Party and vote for Obamacare. That gives the Democrats 50 votes, one short of the majority. (In a tie, the GOP Vice President will vote with the GOP members.) Surely there is one more sane GOP Senator besides Collins who will vote with the Democrats to protect seniors and our national parks and forests.

Here's what you need to know to help win this seat. So stop whining about being "depressed" and
do something real against Trump!    Send donations or volunteer to make phone calls at:
Foster Campbell for the United States Senate




When the masnbc video is working you can see the Maddow interview with the rather sad bulldog-looking candidate named Campbell.  He must indeed be a bulldog to have survived a field of six contenders in order to make the runoff. Go get 'em. Foster Camopbell! last-senate-race-has-national-significance-812088387975

On Environment, Business Steps Up to Thanksgiving Plate

A TRULY HAPPY THANKSGIVING as business steps up to the Thanksgiving plate!

Good news indeed!  http://www.nytimes.com/…/us-companies-to-trump-dont-abandon…

Business is stepping up to the plate just as I hoped it would. 

As I suggested the day after the election, environmentalism is imbedded in the American consciousness and not to be tossed away by an ill-informed man and his chums.(http://outfrontpolitics.blogspot.com/…/what-can-trump-reall…?) Many businesses recognize that a ruined environment, racism, rotted infrastructure, sexual preference prejudice, etc., are bad for business.

Thanks to Barnie for helping teach anti-racism and to Big Bird for teaching environmentalism. And don't eat Big Bird for Thanksgiving.

I am thankful today and every day for you, my readers. Wherever you are, remember it's your world. Claim it and protect it. 

Blessings on us all!

An Open Letter to Donald Trump by a Guest Writer

This guest writer is my son Jeremy. I hope his letter resonates with you as it did with me.

Letter to Donald Trump, President Elect of the United States

Mr. Trump,

Congratulations on your victory. In two short months you will be taking on the greatest responsibility in the world. You will be responsible for the lives and futures not only of the nearly 60 million residents of the U.S. that voted for you, but also the 260 million that did not vote for you.  What that means is that you have to put the election rhetoric aside and try to govern.  If you are to successfully govern this country, it means you must lead and not just command the people whom you are trying to govern. The job you are about to take over is not one of power, it is one of responsibility. 

This country is a blend of different races, creeds, sexual orientations, and it is also composed of more women than men. You cannot govern it as if it were a collection of white heterosexual Christian males of European descent. The rhetoric you used to win the election has intensified the already widening divide in our nation and it will only get worse if you don’t stand up and do something about it. 

Millions of Americans are afraid of you and that is why you have seen protests across the country. They are afraid that you will take away their families just because some of them are undocumented. They are afraid you will take away their right to marry whom they want. They are afraid you will take away their health care. They are afraid you will allow big companies to pollute their water and air and destroy the climate. They are afraid you will mortgage their children’s futures by giving away huge tax breaks to the wealthy and businesses and increasing the national debt to the point where it cannot be paid back. They are afraid you will destroy the diplomatic relations with countries that are our allies and our trading partners by breaking the promises we made as a country to them in treaties that they rely on.  They are afraid you will ignore military leaders, policy experts, and law enforcement officials and that you will make decisions without first learning the potential consequences of your actions.  

This is not a game show. It is not a real estate transaction. Bankruptcy is not an option. There are no re-takes or editing. The consequences of your actions are real, permanent, and the results of your decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people, not just some contestants, celebrities, or investors.  Your demeanor and civility are no longer yours alone. You represent 250 years of struggle, sacrifice, patriotism, courage, and unbelievable heroism that built this country and made it what it is today.  You need to consider what has gone into making this country great. 

You need to leave your election slogan behind with the election, and come to the realization that this country is already great, and your responsibility is to try to make it better.  

Your first and most important priority is not to those who supported you in your election. Your most important priority is to those that opposed you. You must unite this country again before you can start to make things better. You can’t do that through executive order, legislation, or appointments. It will take humility, dignity, and respect for all your constituents especially those that opposed you.  You will need to recognize their point of view and really try to see their side. 

It is easy to lead those that support you, but it takes tremendous leadership to lead those who oppose you. If you want to lead the entire country, you will need to embrace your opponents and try to help them.  You may not agree with them, but they are mostly good, kind, and decent people that want the freedom to pursue happiness, raise their families, practice their own religion, and strive for a better life for themselves and a better future for their children.  

I wish you tremendous success and I will pray for you. You have the hardest job in the world. Before you move into the White House, take a look at pictures of the men who lived there before you. Look into their faces and compare them to the faces that emerged 4 or 8 years later. Time didn’t change those faces. The tremendous responsibility that you are facing is what aged those men. 

Good luck and may God guide you.  Make America better, and try to make all of America proud of you.

The Secret of the Universe Is the Electoral College

As Stephen Colbert said a week ago, "Now we know why bad things happen to good people." (Pauses a beat.) "It's the electoral college".

That's the post I'm now working on. Of all the issues this election raises and all the ideas I was pursuing, the electoral college has emerged in my judgment as the most important.

I'll be back as soon as I have mustered the materials you and others will need to change this serious impediment to democracy. Whether you're a Republican or a Democrat, the electoral college as presently conducted is a menace to your having the victory your party may have been handed by a majority of the voters.

So please be patient. I think you'll feel the wait is worth it. And, no, this is not about how to get a constitutional amendment.

Please be patient. So much, so fast!

I'm working on three new postings at the same time. So please be patient. Lots of data on why the election went as it did. (There's really only one reason in my view.) And lots of good news and lots of Trump/team errors. And how we can fix the electoral college mess without a constitutional amendment.

Actually that's four new postings I'm working on.

Patience is it's own reward. (It isn't, but that sounds nice.) So please check back soon for lots of new stuff.

Oh, there's also one on more stuff Trump can't do.  That's five new postings I'm working on!

Yikes!

America Is Still Here

Hi, world! Thanks to all of you around the world who have been following our election and my blog. I hear how worried you have been and how dismayed and frightened some of you are now. As you know from my prior posting, I'm looking at what harms Trump can really do.You're hearing a lot of rumors and fear talk. Let's look at reality as best we can. From yesterday here's my first one of several I'm going to do on this topic: What Can Trump Really DO?

While I'm writing the next posts on the limits of Trump's power, please be assured that the real America is still here. I'm sending these items (below) to ease your concerns. First is a video from a supermarket to prove we are still one, caring people. Cindy Barry Burket shared Upworthy's post .Click through a bit of introductory material to get to a really lovely bit of life. The real Americans are still here. (Cindy is my beloved adopted daughter,)


And here's a photo taken this morning by a friend out in the forest on the northernmost edge of America, way up in Minnesota. It shows the real America is not blue and red but the colors of late and fading autumn next to a serene lake. America the land is still here.
(Except some of us are also Chicago Cubs' blue during baseball season.)

We Americans wish you all well. As a people and a nation we are still here and you are still our brothers and sisters.

What Can Trump REALLY Do?

What can Trump actually do? Nothing like what he has threatened.

By contrast we can do very effective things about the mess we face. We can make things okay. And I will be writing about some definite remedies available to us. (See where I've already begun:  Now What Do We Do?)  But first, we have to pull up our socks and think straight.

We must shut out the horror stories about what Donald Trump is "going to do".  Most of what he said he will do, he simply can't. Don't buy his campaign propaganda! He was lying in order to get attention and supporters. Plus he doesn't know what he is talking about! By contrast I am a lawyer,  a professor of legislation, an activist for decades in civil rights, and author of two definitive works on environmental legislation. I worked in government and politics for 45 years.

Believe me, Donald Trump is ignorant and inexperienced about government.  Government is a big ship and very hard to turn. I learned that when working for eight years at the executive level in California state government.

Most of the things he says he will do actually have to be done by Congress. Repeal of Obamacare? Are you telling me Congress is really going to strip 22 million constituents of their health insurance? Trump's just now pulled back from condemning  those with pre-existing conditions to again being denied coverage? But take away insurance from 22 million American? C'mon! Those 22 million are voters in Congressional districts! Here come the wheel chair parades to denounce "cruel" Congressmen.

Quite likely the Congress will come up with something other than Obamacare, and we probably won't like it. If it's bad, it will perish because it doesn't work for people.  Then we will move a step closer to the only real solution: single payer, i.e. everybody can opt for Medicare. It will be fun to watch Congress trying to carry the hot potato of replacing Obamacare. Once people have medical insurance it's hard to take it away, as the GOP Congress—and Trump—will now learn. And just watch the screams when the GOP's House Speaker Paul Ryan pushes for "privatizing" Medicare. Such moves will destroy the GOP's majority in Congress.

Repeal of our environmental laws? Those laws are there for a good reason. Among other things, they cleaned the sewage and garbage out of the rivers. Remember the Cuyahoga River catching fire from all the trash in it? The laws also cleaned up the choking smog of our major Western cities. China and India's people are dying because of pollution, and those governments are finally learning the lesson. Trump's government will too, if it comes to that.

Also remember that a lot of states now have environmental regulation. They even sue each other because pollutants from one come into the skies or waters of the other. Environmental law at the federal level is useful but actually not as nimble as state laws. I saw the environmental movement being born 50 years ago and was part of that process: the San Francisco Bay Area's "Save the Bay", the first grass-roots environmental campaign. Since then environmentalism has become part of the fabric of American life. Sesame Street teaching it to the kids, all the recycling we now do, solar panels on people's roofs and on business roofs because solar is geting cheaper and is saving people and businesses money. On and on. Environmentalism is bigtime in American life.

As for dirty energy and global warming, both the GOP Congress and Trump say they are going to get the "job-killing regulations" off the coal and oil industries. That doesn't mean a damn thing!  That's not going to bring back jobs in those industries because dirty fuels are a drag on the market. They are going to continue to go away no matter what the feds do. They are dying industries because of economics, not because of federal regulations.  E.g. Op-Ed Contributor The Coal Industry Isn’t Coming Back     Natural gas is increasingly replacing coal in producing electricity, holding the place that solar, wind and even newer technologies will fill in due course.

Now look at oil: gasoline is half  the pump price of just a few years ago.  The financial community now assigns a virtual zero value to in-ground oil, refusing to any longer consider it as an asset of a company. No banks want to lend on oil and coal projects any more.  (I don't know where the proponents of the Keystone pipeline got their money but apparently they had it in the bag before the downfall of oil prices.) After a big fight two years ago in Portland, Oregon, Shell persisted in sending its oil drilling ship up into Alaskan waters, then brought it home almost immediately because the accountants said it wasn't worth the expense in a shrinking oil market.

Trump has made a lot of threats, and over the next weeks I'll try to assess the actual possibilty of the most serious ones. The Supreme Court is, of course, the supreme worry.

But get this right now—because I know your humanitarian concern is profound—Trump cannot deport 11 million people wholesale. Or the "two or three milion criminals" he has now cut down to.) There are requirements of due process for even non-citizens and for "criminals". Supreme Court Upholds Basic Due Process Rights of Immigrants  And get this: the Catholic Church was extremely protective of the "illegal aliens" as they were called back in the 1980s when mass round-ups were attempted. The Church opened its doors as sanctuaries. The Religious Origins of the Sanctuary Movement. Do Trump and the Congress really want to take on the Catholic Church, still the largest church in America? One in five Americans is Catholic, equaling over 69 million nationwide. Celebration Guide for the Inaugural Year, Parish Religious Education Week, Nov 1-7, 2015 Not nice politics to have police and INS on TV forcing their way into churches to grab little children.

Plus keep this in mind: will the parsimonious GOP Congress give Trump billions for deportations and for his "beautiful wall"?  Really? And how will the big hotels, such as those bearing the Trump name, replace the Latino maids and laundresses, cooks and gardeners that make their existence possible? And what will mighty agribusiness do without stoop labor? And the meat-packing plants in Kansas and Nebraska that could open in the little prairie towns because they could get Latino workers to come there. The Latinos coming there saved those little towns from extinction. And what about the workers in construction and road work? How many industries does Trump think he can shaft with the okay of Congress?

It's still America, and money and business still run the show. Sometimes in the name of profit, business gets it right—as with energy conservation. Sometimes it supports a system that keeps desperate refugees at low wages, as in the fields of agriculture.  But in the 70 years I have been hearing about "wet-backs" and the "stoop labor" issue, no one has ever come up with a lasting plan for decent wages that agribusiness would accept. Or could any politician fight off the demands of our huge agribusiness. To believe agribusiness will now accept its cheap labor being deported is nonsense.

I'm just trying to point out that Trump won't have it all his way. The GOP Congress also can't have it all its way and get re-elected. Trump's supporters are in for big disappointments.

Among the promises he can't deliver on is one I actually liked. In fact, I'm going to get a tee shirt that says, "Hey, Donald! Where's my Social Security increase?"

I'll tackle more of Trump's no-go ideas soon, plus an upcoming post on how we circumvent the drat electoral college in the future. This has to stop happening. We win the popular vote and get kicked in the stomach. George W in 2000 and now Trump, even though both were rejected by a majority of voters. Give me a break!
_______________
P.S. Is it true Trump made millions on all those caps that he sold at the rallies, the ones that say "Make America Great Again"?  You think I can make millions with my Social Security tee shirt? If so, the ice cream is on me! Four scoops for everybody!




  

Now What Do We Do?

Now what do we do?

Trump is president, the GOP still controls the Congress, and Trump will have the appointments to insure right-wing control of the Supreme Court. Our long nightmare of a campaign has become something even worse.

But we shall endure. And as we do so, we shall fix things. Yes, we can.

Some of us are old enough to have made it through five years of Nixon, eight years of Reagan, and eight years of George W grinning like Alfred E. Newman in Mad Magazine: "What, me worry?"

But we can do more than endure passively. We can organize. The Democratic party apparatus has failed us miserably. We must build anew.

We can demand a new Democratic Party constitution that takes party management out of the hands of the sold-out, ineffectual officeholders like Nancy Pelosi and What's-Her-Name Wasserman.  The new constitution will put the party's governance into the hands of a panel of Grand Old Democrats, such as retired U.S. Senators or governors or whoever, i.e. a trustworthy blue-ribbon bunch. Let them set primary debate schedules, allocate campaign funds, control who gets the lists, establish an ongoing small-dollar fund raising operation that utilizes the method Bernie used to raise millions at $27 a pop.

We can start a talent search for candidates to run for local and state offices and Congressional seats, like the "50-state strategy" Howard Dean instituted after losing the Democratic nomination in 2004.  Through his strategy in 2006 a tsunami of elected Democrats swept into Congress and the state offices. (Hey, maybe we can get Dean back!)

We can decide to stop being "too busy" for politics. Yes, everybody has a high-powered job and is a big shot with such demands on their time as you just wouldn't believe. I don't care. I've heard it all before repeatedly in recent decades, and it's just a cop-out. You don't have the time to not be involved. Because unless you get involved we are going to run out of time entirely, scorched by global warming or blown to bits by nuclear weapons.

Who's going to lead the way with this? you rightfully ask.

You are.

You have a computer. Use it. You can begin something that can grow. And you can find others who want to do something about this mess. I know various people who have started or spurred national movements. Every organization was some one person's idea. Remember Occupy Wall Street?  But let's look further back than that to a time of no computers and a setting of poverty and hardship.

In the early 1960s Cesar Chavez decided to organize the Latino farmworkers in the fields of California. I went to those fields in that era. One hundred and ten degrees and no shade, no water, no porta-potties. Children as young as five and six with their little backs bent over as they picked under the blazing sun. The adults bent over double hour after hour. (That, my friends, is how your food is supplied to you.)

Cesar was a saintly man and couldn't stand to see the people suffer. As a little boy he too had picked. So now he went to see Dolores Huerta.

"I want you to help me organize a labor union of us farm workers", Cesar said.

"I can't do that!" she replied.

Then and ever after, Cesar answered, "Si, se puede." Yes. you can.

And she did. She went house to house, hovel to hovel, and she told the laborers and their families that "We are going to be a labor union."  "No, we, can't do that."  "Si, se puede," Dolores said.

And they did. And they struck against the lettuce-growers and the grape-growers and on and on. When Cesar was jailed in Salinas and the people feared for his safety, we had a candlelight vigil outside the jail and Ethel Kennedy came. Later—in 1975—I sat on the stairs outside the hearing room where the California State Legislature was approving the California Labor Relations Act.  Si, se puede. It was possible after all. She and Cesar had done it!

In 2012 I watched on TV as President Obama hung the Presidential Medal of Freedom around the neck of my friend "Dolo" Huerta, then 82 years old. Here she is in 2016, age 86. And here she is the mid-1960s  with Bobby Kenndy and Cesar.



I think of this trio today, and thus the threat of Trump and the GOP power monopoly melts into the manageable. Yes, they are a menace but we have inspiring friends. We can rise to meet these threats. We can clean up our own political home. We follow a path made by the strong ones.

Cesar said, “The greatest tragedy is not to live and die, as we all must. The greatest tragedy is for a person to live and die without knowing the satisfaction of giving life for others.”


 Robert Kennedy often quoted George Bernard Shaw: "Some men see things as they are and say why? I dream things that never were and say why not? "

 A Democratic party free of fat cats and of candidates who "get their turn"? A party of the people, for the people, and by the people. I dream of such things and say why not?

Si, se puede.

P.S. I just noticed Grand Old Democrats can be "GOD". Oh, golly! Trump and the GOP had better watch out.

Three More Reasons We Know Clinton Is Winning

Yesterday I wrote a blog post that presented seven ways we can know Clinton is winning. But there are actually three more:

First  of the additional reasons we know Clinton is winning:
Today for the fifth time in four weeks—yes, the fifth time!—Democratic precinct workers came to my door. That is amazing. As I never tire of saying, nothing is as powerful in politcial campaigning as someone at your front door. At least here in Pennsylvania  the lauded superiority of the Clinton ground game is real! And remember that Pennsylvania is one of the key states to winning the presidency.

Second: One of my sons just reminded me:  in screening for "likely voters", pollsters automatically rule out new voters by making the litmus test whether the voter voted in the last election. Where enormous numbers of new voter registrations have occurred this year, as in the Latino communities in Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, a large number of anti-Trump voters are being automatically excluded from the polls. Analyst Nate Silver, for example, briefly refers to them as "low-propensity voters who weren’t necessarily making it through likely voter screens." Election Update: The Campaign Is Almost Over, And Here’s Where We Stand

Third:   The America I have known and loved for a long, long time has its serious evil such as racism. But it is basically a country of good people where racists and other ignorant people are outnumbered about two to one. Even though many of its people are scared now by the big changes in this country and our world, not all its people are scared of the changes nor are all the scared ones willing to take severe measures against their fellow citizens. Americans have fought to save other people from tyranny, have delivered massive relief to stricken countries, have been more philanthropically generous in their private giving than any other people on earth. And in spite of a wretched strain of racism in America, this country did enact the Civil Rights Act and decades later elected an African American president.

After all its 230-year history of sacrifice and struggle for freedom and justice and all its generosity of spirit,  I can't believe America will make Donald Trump its president.

I can't believe that. I refuse to believe it.

Hillary Is Winning! So Stop Being Anxious!

Hillary Clinton is winning the presidency!

"Wait!" you say. "Aren't we hearing a lot about the polls tightening?"

Ignore that. The polls at this point don't mean much, especially this year. The postscript at the end has  one theory on the non-significance of these poll swings. And keep in mind that, tightening or no tightening, Clinton's still leading!

So if we ignore the polls, what can foretell Tuesday's outcome? Sure, there's the fact my Cubs won the World Series, meaning anything good can happen. But aside from that truth, there are solid, fact-based reasons we know she is winning.

Number One of Clinton-is-winning:  Moody's Analytics is usually focused on rating nations and companies as to their worth and credit-worthiness, but  it goes political every four years and has correctly predicted every presidential race since Reagan's win in 1980. Paying no attenton to polls, this is what Moody's predicts for next Tuesday (as you'll see, it's based on other factors besides an "economic forecast".)


Moody's Analytics model predicts big Clinton win - Nov. 1, 2016

In making its projection, Moody's uses economic factors that determine the public's sense of well-being. These include the currently low gas prices (everyone is aware of them because they are posted along all the streets.) Another factor is household income, which has been rising according to this week's end-of-month Department of Labor report. Currently rising home prices are the third factor, making everyone feel richer. And the unempoyment rate just fell to 4.9! A new low since 2008 and one seldom seen since Bill Clinton was president.

Moody's also uses political factors. First is the outgoing president's standing. Obama is in great shape at 55% approval, one of the highest of any retiring president ever. A second consideration is the general partisan leaning of each state. Democrats at present tend to dominate in the most populous states with the highest number of electoral college votes: California, New York, Illinois...well, you get the idea. A third consideration is called "political fatigue" which means that some states tend to switch parties every few years, but that's really getting into the weeds.

Let's move on to Number Two of  Clinton-is-winning: We know Clinton is going to win because you—the voter—tell us so. Like Moody's, the voters have never been wrong in calling the presidential race. People call it correctly even when they are voting for the other candidate! As of last week nearly 70% of voters said Clinton is going to win. Poll: Nearly 7 in 10 voters think Clinton will win election ...

There is another group in this category of "never been wrong": the school children. Famous for prediction US school foresees Hillary Clinton win ... They too have picked Clinton.

And if you can't trust these two groups with these great track records, will you trust the gamblers, the people willing to actually lay their actual money on Clinton? The gambling odds in favor of Clinton are effectivelt 4-to-1. Live Betting Odds

Number Three:  If you need more reassurance, here's a blockbuster, almost a too-good-to-be-true.  A smart pollster decided to stop asking people how they would vote and instead asked those who have already voted to tell how they had actually voted. This was done in Florida, where the state publishes the name and party of those who have done early voting. When these actual voters were interviewed, it was discovered that 28% of Florida Republicans had voted for Clinton! That is stunning! (I'll bet they were GOP women!)  Based on this, these same pollsters project Clinton will beat Trump in Florida by eight points!  TargetSmart/William & Mary survey featured on MSNBC   Keep in mind that Trump cannot win the electoral college without Florida!

Need more reassurance? Number Four is from the noted Larry Sabato and the University 0f Virginia Center for Politics. Florida is the only toss-up in his prediction, and Clinton—even without Florida— is at 293 electoral votes v. the 270 she needs to win. Trump is locked out even if he wins Florida.



 


Number Five: You can't need more reassurance! But in case you do, here's a whopper. As of last night, Princeton Election Consortium joined UVA in calling the race for Clinton. Prior to this, in mid-October its charming director, Professor Sam Wang, twittered, "It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug." This evening he doubled down, saying that Hillary has a 99% chance of winning and will have at least 330 electoral votes. He didn't say anything more about eating bugs. He did, however, mention "72 quadrillion" calculations in his analytic process. (He has a hell of a computer it seems.)

Number Six depends on Governor John Kasich of Ohio. Of all the enemies he has callously made, Trump couldn't have picked a worse one than Ohio's GOP Governor John Kasich. You remember Kasich in the GOP primaries? Trump just squashed him like the bug that Professor Wang would be willing to eat. Keep in mind it's almost impossible for a Republican to win the White House without Ohio. And Ohio is Kasich's  fiefdom. In the bent politics of Ohio, Kasich can bend things any way he wants to. Just recall that a GOP official in Ohio cost Kerry the election in 2004. It just suddenly became real hard for Kerry's supporters to vote. Oddly enough, Trump is right about"rigged elections" but he picked the wrong state (Pennsylvania) and the wrong party. It could be the GOP in Ohio who rigs things against him!

But Kasich can screw Trump even without messing with the voting. He can just quietly bar the Ohio GOP from doing any get out the vote for Trump. Remember that Kasich has opposed Trump all along, even to staying away from the GOP convention in his very own state. That's real hate, baby! Plus Kasich wants the helm in rebuilding the GOP in the wake of Trump's crazy run. So his future depends on being sure Trump has none. Without a good ground effort to identify Trump supporters and get out their vote, chances are lots of them won't show up. Do you realize how many of Trump's previously non-voting supporters don't even know you have to be registered to vote? I live amongst them here in the mountains of Appalachian Pennsylvania and I can tell you that lots don't know much of anything of how voting or government work. But I love them in spite of their willful ignorance and prejudices,  and—like Michael Moore— I bitterly resent how Trump has misled and exploited them.

Now Kasich alone may even the score for them. As we said in show biz, Everyone you step on in your climb is waiting to kick you on your way down. Let's hope good ol' Kicker Kasich does the job!

Saturday's sparkling autumn morning brings more reassurance with Number Seven: Here's from today's NY Times:



Think of it like this: Would you take a trip in a car that had only a 16% chance of making it without going off the road?  Clinton is still leading in the polls in enough states to give her 270+ electoral votes. 2016 Election Forecast Updated 9 minutes ago and RCP Poll Average. In fact, no respectable pollster or analyst is putting Trump in the lead or expecting him to get there.

Please keep in mind that Trump never has led Clinton. Her range has been upper forties and his has been low to mid 40s. They bounce around in those ranges, but she's never slid under her lower fence and he's never jumped his upper one. Think of Trump's upper fence as his famous tall wall. It's the only wall he's built or ever going to build,  and it's keeping him out of the White House. Ha ha on you, Trump!

That brings us to Number Seven:  By threatening to deport millions of undocumented Latinos, Trump has awakened a sleeping tiger. Live Updates: Hispanics Surge to Polls as Race Nears the End In the West and in Florida—glory be!—Latinos are voting like crazy wherever voting's started.  It's a phenomenal increase, and it looks like they will more than cover any drop-off rate in African American voting. I'll write more about this after the election because it is a phenomenon I've waited 48 years for and worked hard for, as did others. But we failed for 48 years. Now Trump—with his amazing idiocy and threats and insults—has made it happen. He wanted to give tickets to the eleven million undocumented for a one-way ride on a government bus to Mexico, and now the citizen-relatives of those undocumented are giving Trump what we call in Spanish "La Avila".
                                                           ****************

That's seven big fat reasons to relax, Or at least stop getting knots in your stomach. Your old mama has spoken. Thank me by trying to enjoy this momentous ride through history. We are in the front seats of the front car on a ride that's an adventure. All adventures have to have fear and risks, right? But we know it will come out okay. I'll now mention the strongest reason of all even if it's culturally a no-no to mention Him, but I have been storming at Him for way over a year with the fervor of an old Jewish Irish Catholic, using the irrefutable logic that He gave us the miracle of an African American president in this racist country and thus it makes no sense for Him to let Trump be president now and undo all of Obama's good works. His answer is a smile and the usual, "I don't make evil. Humans do. You have the power to stop Trump. Just vote early and often and help with Democratic get-out-the-vote."

He's right. He always is! It's not too late to call your local Democrats and volunteer for get out the vote work between now and election day. For what else did God and/or the Jews create the weekend?

(I say"Him" because it's easiest. Frankly, I have no idea what or whom The One is. The One takes care of that, and I do politics. By the way, did you ever realize that the story of Jesus is a political story?)

Well, like Porky Pig used to say, "That's all, folks" ....... But not quite. Tuesday has yet to come. Only two more days. You can't count today because it's half over. And you can't count Election Day itself because that's like counting December 25 as one of the days until Christmas. Nonsense! Nevertheless, the media keep saying four days! Well, if they can't even count the days correctly, why trust them enough to let them get you worried? Also the media drones on about "the undecideds". Bosh! There's no actual undecideds. That's just people ashamed to admit they are not voters. I've been through this with them in 18 presidential elections since I was age 8. At this point there are no undecideds!

Just keep saying to yourself, "That blasphemer Old Mama Dorothy and God The Father both say it will be okay. Screw the alarmists on TV! And if it isn't okay, Mama Dorothy is leading an Exodus to the mild climate ofVancouver, British Columbia, or to Ireland. Another adventure!"

And also keep chanting, "If the Cubs can win the damn Series, anything good can happen!"

You okay now? Stay okay! I love you all.

Vote early and often!
____________
P.S. One credible theory on the non-significance of polling wobbles: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/08/don_t_be_fooled_by_clinton_trump_polling_bounces.html

"How You Can Fight Donald Trump Right Now"

Here's an excellent, practical article. I print the link here for your consideration while I'm compiling a pair of soon-to-be-posted-blogs. One I'm working on is "Gene Wilder and Donald Trump". The other is "How Does It Look Now We're Down to the Wire?"

Please read this article and do what it suggests.  It's our country. Let's keep it that way.

David Leonhardt How You Can Fight Donald Trump Right Now