Monday, February 29, 2016

South Carolina/ Super Tuesday? Balderdash!

Can we please sober up? Especially CNN and the other screamers. South Carolina is a no-place in the nomination. And the world doesn't end tomorrow, Super Tuesday.

Before Stupor Tuesday, let's slow down and glance in the rear-view mirror at South Carolina's results two days ago. Not at the totally predictable big number of black votes Hillary Clinton got, but what Bernie Sanders got and she didn't.

He got the white men and the under-30.  South Carolina Exit Polls
Bernie's problems was that these sub-groups collectively aren't as numerous among Democrats in South Carolina as the African Americans. The latter group is so enormous that it absorbs almost all the other categories we usually look at. If you're black and voting a certain way on that basis, then income level, etc. don't matter.

Therefore, hang on to this number..... 61% of South Carolina's Democrats are African American....!

So of course Hillary won big among South Carolina blacks because they had decided to like her even though Bill Clinton's presidency was very bad for them. (Apparently not even a black columnist for the New York Times realized until this moment how bad Bill Clinton had been for blacks, with Hillary's active support. See today's  Blow: ‘I’m Not a Super Predator’)

In stark contrast with South Carolina, however, African Americans are only 12.4% of the Democratic electorate nationally. Outside of South Carolina, winning all their votes and no other group, plus $2.50, gets you a cup of coffee. You can't win an election with just black votes and wealthy old women, the two groups Hillary has been winning with so far. (In Nevada she won narrowly but with the votes of casino workers who were told how to vote by their bosses and had to vote by standing up in an open room under the watch of those bosses' assistants. She lost the Latinos. See my prior blog  What Hillary Lost In Nevada; What Bernie Won In So...

Because of South Carolina's black vote for Hillary, the media proclaimed that she is going to "sweep the South" and thus lock up the nomination ( The 2016 Race Hillary Clinton’s Winning Numbers in South Carolina Suggest Sweep...   ). What happens tomorrow may turn out to be nice for Hillary to some degree but a sweep to the nomination isn't cast in concrete by what happens tomorrow, let alone by what happened in South Carolina.

What does South Carolina actually tells us? Not much. On tomorrow's slate, only Alabama and Georgia approach the size of the black electorate in South Carolina, each having about 51%.

The rest of the South voting on Super Tuesday looks quite different:

  • 17% of the Texas Democratic electorate is African-American;
  • 19% of the Arkansas Democratic electorate is African-American; and
  • 30% of the Virginia Democratic electorate is African-American.  
  • None of the above has 61% black Democratic voters, as does South Carolina.
And it isn't just the South that votes on Super Tuesday. Some of the rest of America gets a peek-in too, including our oft-overlooked American Samoa! ( Gentle humor. I like Samoans very much.) Here's the others:

  • Colorado
  • Democrats Abroad (ex-pats)
  • Massachusetts
  • Minnesota
  • Oklahoma
  • Vermont
Golly! You think Bernie Sanders just might win a state or two from this bunch? He's already had an active campaign going among Democrats Abroad. After all, my own son and daughter-in-law are Bernie standard-bearers in Norway. They won't let Bernie down!

Light-heartedness aside, it seems premature "king-making" (sorry, Hils..."queen-making") on the part of the networks and major press to have crowned Hillary Clinton based on Saturday in South Carolina. It also seems puffery that serves their own agenda. Predictions based on numbers — that's something I can respect. But predictions that have no regard for numbers are just lazy egotism or headline-grabbing to boost the numbers of viewer/readers and thus boost ad revenues.

There have only been a measley 2 caucuses and 2 primaries. Ninety-two percent of the states haven't voted. Very little has been decided for the Democrats. As noted in the article,
5-ways-the-media-is-grave_b_9340218.htmlas compared with Clinton, Donald Trump won only 4% of the vote in South Carolina's GOP primary but walked off with 4% of the delegates he needs for nomination. Though Clinton scored by 5 times as much in South Carolina, she netted only 2.2% of the number of delegates she needs. Clinton Wins South Carolina Primary

It's a long way to Tipperary and even further to the Democratic nomination.

And please note that anyone who says Clinton already has an overwhelming number of delegates is counting the "super delegates". Well, honey, Democratic super delegates are the kind of lover who says, "Sure, I'll respect you in the morning" and then is gone in the dawn. They are around until they aren't. 

WHOA! The word has just come! It looks like Bernie Sanders has raised FORTY MILLION DOLLARS IN JUST FEBRUARY, with about $10 million of that in just the two days since South Carolina!

His troops are still on board and he's still got the dollars to buy baby a pair of shoes. So put another pair of socks in your suitcase.......break out the bagpipes......we are off to Tipperary and even further! 

You have a question? You wonder why Clinton got such a small delegate number out of South Carolina even though she won most of the pie. Because the Democratic Party allocates delegates based on how important a state is to the party, i.e. how many registered Democrats, performance in last election, etc. Obviously South Carolina is not important at all to the Democratic Party. And that should tell us something about the relative importance of Saturday's primary there. Bottom line? It was important only to CNN and the like. In the real world of Democratic politics, it don't count for sour apples!

Second question you're asking? What about the item I promised last time about Rep. James Clyman ratting out Hillary Clinton in South Carolina? Yeah, yeah. I didn't forget. Next time. Along with how I got spat on by Jimmy Carter's old mother. We Democrats have such fun!


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