Sunday, February 21, 2016

What Really Happened in Nevada with Clinton v. Sanders?

What really happened in Nevada on Saturday when Democratic voters caucused to select delegates for either Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton? The media didn't get the correct answer to that question.

And I am not going to tell you.

At least not today. It's just one day after the caucuses. Only a pressured talking head would have babbled the so-called "real story" by now. Pushed by competition to be first with the story, the press and TV have jumped to some wrong conclusions. Getting a sound picture of what the contest Saturday tells us requires a more studious look at the relevant numbers. And it takes a bit of time to ferret out some of the relevant numbers. Then comes some pondering. Finally come the conclusions.

I've already done quite a bit of looking and have figured out a few things, and I think a couple of these things might surprise you. At lease one of them has surprised the hell out of the Clinton campaign and not in a happy way. But I haven't finished gathering data nor pondering it.

So give me a few days as I continue to gather and poke at the figures. After all, numbers are important in politics. Like they say, in the end it's the numbers that count.  (A really bad pun!) But it's also more than that: numbers in hand, one then has to figure out what they mean. Here's a clue: it wasn't just who won and who lost in Nevada that is significant.

So please be patient a few days. Have some ice cream and watch a movie or shoot some pool. Then please come back.

I thank you.

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