Friday, July 7, 2017

Trump Is Going Down

Trump's disapproval numbers are going up, while his approval ratings are going down, as a New York Times columnist points out in the following short article. Even Trump's base is  eroding. 

I offer the following short article because it is clearly written on the topic of numbers, a factor which is vital in politics but often made obtuse or boring. Here all is clear and compelling. 

The writer is David Leonhardt in the NY Times of June 30. This short piece is actually an introduction to a group of articles he collected under the "Browser" section of the Times. His opener is, however, better than anything in his roundup. Unfortunately the Times provides no links for his excellent introductory pieces, so I offer it here in full. Read and cheer!
These numbers possible foreshadow the future of your country and your own future. Now let's get busy and translate these numbers into defeat of the GOP in next year's elections. With a push from us at the local level, Trump's bad numbers can sink all Republican boats, and by taking back the Senate the Democrats can block Trump's appointment of a Supreme Court Justice to replace Justice Kennedy, thus preventing an arch-conservative court for your lifetime and that of your children.

 "President Trump’s latest explosion of meanness has, yet again, left many people disconsolate about the state of the country. Many are especially demoralized that Trump doesn’t seem to lose any popular support despite his erratic behavior.
His supporters, as Ric Steinberger of Incline Village, Nev., writes in a letter in today’s Times, “still tell pollsters that Mr. Trump is their voice.”
Is that accurate? Yes and no.
It’s true that Trump continues to draw the support of about 40 percent of American adults. But his approval ratings have fallen since he became president.
His current approval rating of 39.9 percent is down from 42 percent two months ago (on his 100th day in office) and from about 45 percent on Inauguration Day, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll average. And his disapproval rating has risen even more than his approval rating has dropped: by 13 points, to 54 percent.
Not only that, but the intensity of support for Trump — among those who continue to back him — has waned. Fewer say they “strongly approve,” and more say they “somewhat approve.” Trump’s base seems to be shrinking, as Nate Silver has written. Fewer Americans also find Trump believable than when he took office.
The polls aren’t the only place you can see this dynamic. One of the reasons the Senate health care bill has collapsed — for now, at least — is that Republican senators feel no need to do what their president wants. He isn’t popular enough to fear.
I too despair at watching my president stoop to schoolyard nastiness. And I too wish that more of my fellow citizens, from both parties, would reject this sort of behavior. But you shouldn’t worry that Trump is beyond all of the normal rules of politics.
He isn’t. His lack of results and his behavior as president matter. Despite our highly polarized country, he is ever so slowly losing the faith of people who once supported him."
Remember, there are more of us than there are of Trump and his troops! Now let's go do it! Start organizing now for next year. Hurrah for 2018!

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