Monday, September 12, 2016

Cancel the Campaigns? Trump Can't Win.

Time for the basics! We actually know who will win in November!

Here's the final result in the 2012 election in terms of electoral votes 332 Democratic v. 206 GOP. I think it tells us who will win in 2016. You can see a map of these totals at the end of this column or check it out at RealClearPolitics Final Electoral Map

To determine how 2016 will turn out, let's do a comparison. Immediately below is a recent projection from RealClearPolitics of how the campaigns are doing now in the electoral college, the gray being considered "toss-ups".  Note that Hillary Clinton is projected to now have 209 electoral college votes to Donald Trump's possible 159. RCP Electoral Map

We tend to forget that the all-controlling number in the presidential race is not the popular vote but the 270 electoral college votes needed to get the key to the White House.

We also forget that Romney won only 206 electoral votes in 2012.

Further we seem to ignore that at present, despite Hillary Clinton's inadequacies and mistakes as a candidate, she is presently tromping Trump in the electoral college projections, with an estimated 55 lead over his 154 and with 175 "toss-up" states. Judging by history she's bound to get some of those 175, the most likely ones being Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, and New Hampshire. They are usually Democratic states, and Hillary did well in almost all of them in the primaries. That would give her 278 electoral college votes, eight more than she needs.

Arithmetic controls politics. Trump has to garner an additional 52 electoral votes beyond the present projections to merely equal Romney's losing number of 206 in 2012. Beyond that he has to get an additional 64 electoral votes to hit the magic 270. Thus he needs to win a total of 116 more electoral votes than he is now projected as likely to get.

116! That's a hellofa lot of electoral college votes of the remaining 159 "toss-ups".

Can he do it? Consider Mitt Romney and his loss in 2012, i.e. why would voters in a bunch of states decide to vote for Trump when they had previously rejected Romney? What was there about Romney that would make Trump more palatable in states Romney lost? Is Trump the Putin-style "strong man" the voters in those states longed for in 2012, and therefore voted for Obama rather than the pathetic Romney? Not likely. Those who like the "autocratic" style of politician usually despise black people. They wouldn't have voted for Obama in 2012. They don't account for Romney's loss and therefore can't drag Trump over the line.

Maybe Trump has hidden voters in states that rejected Romney, ones who have stayed home all these decades, the mythical multitudes that will "someday" appear at the polls when a candidate is far-right enough, or populist enough, or crazy enough to inspire them.

Sorry, I can't believe in people who have never voted. I know such people. Their lives are a mess and they take no responsibility for that fact. Many hardly know there's a campaign on. Others aren't willing to bother to do anything about their situation. Others flaunt their non-participation because that proves they are above it all.

Let's make it easier for Trump. Let's give him the four states in 2012 that went for Romney but are now considered "toss-ups" (though in my view three shouldn't be but are truly GOP). Let's give Trump Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and also North Carolina, this last because it's traditionally Southern though veering Democratic of late. That gives him an additional 53 electoral college votes. Still a long way to Tipperary! It's not even half of his projected electoral deficit.

So where on this map of the 2012 final count does Trump win enough states that Romney couldn't win?

I double-dare you to identify them!

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